地缘政治风险对中国区域能源转型的影响分析——以“一带一路”国内重点地区为例

Analysis on the Impact of Geopolitical Risks on China′s Regional Energy Transition—A Case Study of Key Domestic Regions of the"Belt and Road"Initiative

地缘政治风险可能引发能源安全问题,而加速能源转型则是我国应对潜在能源安全风险的必由之路。以“一带一路”国内重点地区为研究对象,综合考虑地区战略定位、经济带规划、地理位置等因素,将其划分为“一带”地区和“一路”地区,构建计量经济模型,在分析中国地缘政治风险现状的基础上,分析外部地缘政治风险对“一带一路”国内重点地区能源转型(能源生产转型和能源消费转型)的影响作用。研究发现:1999~2021年我国地缘政治风险呈波动式上升趋势,“一带一路”倡议为有效应对地缘政治不稳定造成的能源安全风险带来了机遇;“一带”地区能源生产转型水平高于“一路”地区,而“一路”地区能源消费转型水平高于“一带”地区;地缘政治风险显著促进了“一带一路”国内重点地区的能源生产转型,但这种正向促进作用仅对“一带”地区显著,对“一路”地区不显著;经济政策不确定性在地缘政治风险对能源生产转型的正向影响中发挥着显著的抑制作用。建议我国应加强地缘政治风险的监测和预警机制,差异化制定和实行能源转型政策,提高经济政策的稳定性。

Geopolitical risks may lead to energy security issues,and accelerating energy transition is the only way for China to deal with potential energy security risks.Taking the key domestic regions of the"Belt and Road"Initiative as the research object,this paper comprehensively considers regional strategic positioning,economic belt planning,geographical location and other factors,divides the key domestic regions into"Belt"regions and"Road"regions,builds an econometric model,and analyzes the influence of external geopolitical risks on energy transition(energy production transition and energy consumption transition)in the key domestic regions of the"Belt and Road"Initiative based on the analysis of the current geopolitical risks in China.The findings are as follows:China′s geopolitical risks show a fluctuating upward trend from 1999 to 2021,and the"Belt and Road"Initiative brings opportunities to effectively deal with the energy security risks caused by geopolitical instability;The energy production transition level in"Belt"regions is higher than that in"Road"regions,while the energy consumption transition level in"Road"regions is higher than that in"Belt"regions;Geopolitical risks significantly promoted the energy production transition in the key domestic regions of the"Belt and Road"Initiative,but this positive promotion effect was significant only for"Belt"regions and not for"Road"regions;The uncertainty of economic policies plays a significant inhibitory role in the positive impact of geopolitical risks on energy production transition.It is suggested that China should strengthen the monitoring and early warning mechanism of geopolitical risks,formulate and implement energy transition policies differently,and improve the stability of economic policies.