东盟光伏产业发展现状及前景展望

Development Status and Prospects of Photovoltaic Industry in ASEAN

东盟电力装机结构中化石能源约占2/3,发展包括光伏在内的可再生能源将成为东盟实现能源清洁化转型的重要方式。为了摸底东盟国家光伏开发潜力,在梳理东盟电力发展现状的基础上,考虑光照条件、地形地势、土地利用等约束条件,对东盟各国的光伏技术可开发量进行评估。截至2022年底,东盟光伏总装机为24.2GW,约占电力总装机的7.8%。而光伏技术可开发量达到9929GW,年光伏发电潜力总量为12668TW·h,光伏已开发量与优异的资源禀赋极不匹配。缅甸光伏技术可开发量超过3000GW,是东盟光伏开发潜力最大的国家。柬埔寨、泰国和印尼光伏技术可开发量都达到1000GW以上,均具备较大的发展潜力。根据东盟各国的资源条件及实际需求,除新加坡、文莱以外的大部分国家可采用地面集中式光伏电站的模式快速形成规模效益,分布式光伏系统可广泛应用于东盟各国,东盟可因地制宜发展水面光伏、光伏+、多能互补等多元化光伏开发形式。东盟可通过制定激励政策、加强互联互通和电网建设、合理布局光伏产业链等促进光伏产业发展。中国-东盟双方在光伏领域具有较大的合作前景。

The installed capacity of fossil energy accounts for about 2/3 of the total installed capacity in ASEAN′s power structure,and the development of renewable energy,including photovoltaic,will become an important way for ASEAN to achieve the transition to clean energy.In order to find out the photovoltaic development potential of ASEAN countries,on the basis of sorting out the current situation of ASEAN power development,the technically exploitable amount of photovoltaic in ASEAN countries is assessed considering the constraints such as lighting conditions,terrain and land use.By the end of 2022,ASEAN′s total installed PV capacity was 24.2GW,accounting for about 7.8%of the total installed power capacity.The technically exploitable amount of photovoltaic reached 9929GW,and the total annual photovoltaic power generation potential was 12668TW·h.The amount of photovoltaic developed was extremely mismatched with the excellent resource endowment.Myanmar′s technically exploitable amount of photovoltaic exceeds 3000GW,making it the country with the greatest potential for photovoltaic development in ASEAN.With a technically exploitable amount of more than 1000GW,Cambodia,Thailand and Indonesia have great potential for photovoltaic development.According to the resource conditions and actual needs of ASEAN countries,most countries except for Singapore and Brunei can adopt the mode of ground-mounted centralized photovoltaic power stations to quickly form economies of scale.Distributed photovoltaic systems can be widely used in ASEAN countries,and ASEAN can develop diversified photovoltaic development forms such as water surface photovoltaic,photovoltaic+,and multi-energy complementation according to local conditions.ASEAN can promote the development of the photovoltaic industry by formulating incentive policies,strengthening connectivity and power grid construction,and rationally arranging the photovoltaic industry chain.China-ASEAN cooperation in the photovoltaic field has great prospects.