气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响:理论逻辑和应对措施

The Impact of Climate Change on China's Food Security:Theoretical Logic and Response Strategies

在社会生态系统(SES)框架基础上,本文探讨了气候变化情景下农业资源系统和治理系统的复杂动态关联,揭示了气候变化对中国粮食安全供给、获取、利用和稳定性影响的理论逻辑,通过Meta回归解释了粮食供给安全量化研究结果产生差异的原因,并从粮食生产、供应、消费和进出口等各个环节分析了减缓和适应气候变化影响的措施。研究发现,SES框架有助于分析气候变化与粮食安全耦合适应过程中的复杂动态关联,对粮食产量变动的预测因气候情景、研究区域、作物类型、气候特征和适应措施等设定的不同产生了差异化结果,SES框架能够为多学科研究成果的整合提供通用语言。总体上,本文通过SES框架将社会和生态系统的视角结合起来,为全面理解气候变化与粮食安全之间复杂动态关联提供了一个新选择。

Based on a social-ecological system(SES)framework,this paper explores the complex dynamic relationships between agricultural resource systems and governance systems under climate change scenarios,revealing the theoretical relationship of how climate change affects the supply,access,utilization,and stability of food security in China.It also applies Meta-regression to explain the reasons for the differences in quantitative findings on food supply security,and analyzes the strategies for mitiga-ting and adapting to the impacts of climate change in terms of the various aspects of food production,supply,consumption,and import and export.This paper finds that the SES framework helps to analyze the complex dynamic linkages in the coupled adaptation process of climate change and food security.The projections of food production changes have produced differentiated results depending on the settings of climate scenarios,regions,crop types,climate characteristics,and adaptation measures.The SES frame-work provides a common language for integrating multidisciplinary research findings.Overall,this paper combines social and ecosystem perspectives through the SES framework,providing a novel perspective for a more comprehensive understanding of the complex dynamic linkages between climate change and food security.