土地配置如何影响城市人口空间分布

How Does Land Allocation Affect Spatial Distribution of Urban Population

在土地资源日益稀缺的背景下,中国城镇化进程中人地不匹配现象频出。本文将政府主导的土地配置行为引入量化空间模型,从“以地引人”视角解析与检验地方政府土地配置对城市人口空间分布的影响机制及其效应。研究发现,地方政府土地配置偏向对城市内部人口迁移方向产生明显的导向作用,政府更多地向城市中心区配置土地,能引导人口向中心集聚;同时,地方政府“以地引人”政策的有效性受到城市中心与外围生产率差距的制约,二者之间生产率差距越小,地方政府土地配置引导城市内部人口空间分布的作用越大;当二者之间生产率差距过大,地方政府土地配置优化城市人口空间分布的效果被大幅削弱甚至彻底失灵,难以撼动那些生产率颇具优势区块对人口集聚的吸引力。人口流出型城市和中小规模城市因土地市场需求不足,地方政府“以地引人”政策往往失灵,而人口流入型城市和大规模城市的政府“以地引人”策略更能奏效。进一步研究显示,虽然现实中偏向城市外围的土地配置能引导人口向外围流动,但也造成城市居民总福利降低和城市蔓延等问题。本文认为,地方政府需尊重市场规律,结合城市及其圈层特征,以生产率提升与土地配置协同为目标,有效引导城市人口空间布局优化,实现人地协调和高质量发展。

Against the background of increasingly scarce land resources,the mismatch between population and land resources has become frequent in China’s urbanization process.This paper introduces government-led land allocation into the quantitative spatial model and analyzes the mechanism and effect of local government land allocation on the spatial distribution of urban population.The results of this paper show that local government land allocation bias has a significant guiding effect on population migration within cities.The government allocates more land to the city center,which can indeed guide the population to cluster towards the city center.Meanwhile,the effectiveness of the local government’s“attracting people with land”policy is constrained by the productivity gap between the city center and its periphery.The smaller the productivity gap between the city center and the periphery,the stronger the role of local government land allocation in guiding the spatial flow of population within the city.When the productivity gap between the city center and the periphery is too large,the optimization effect of local government land allocation on the spatial distribution of urban population is greatly weakened or completely ineffective.This makes it difficult to shake the population agglomeration of areas with high productivity advantages.Due to insufficient demand in the land market,local governments’“attracting people with the land”policy often fails in populationoutflowing cities and small and medium-sized cities.By contrast,it is more effective in populationinflow cities and large-scale cities.Further exploration shows that land allocation biased towards the outskirts of cities can guide the population to move towards the periphery,but it leads to problems such as reduced overall welfare of urban residents and urban sprawl.This paper has the following contributions.On the one hand,it deepens theoretical research on the relationship between local government land allocation bias and urban population spatial distribution.Based on the division of the center and periphery of a city,the block differences of government land quotas are introduced into the quantitative spatial model to analyze the theoretical logic and impact mechanism of the local government’s“attracting people with land”strategy.Numerical simulations are used to identify the constraining effect of the productivity gap between the center and periphery on the strategy’s effectiveness.On the other hand,it constructs a dataset by integrating LandScan population distribution data and land market transaction data and examines the role of local government land allocation bias in optimizing urban population spatial distribution.Meanwhile,the methods of structural estimation and counterfactual analysis are used to verify the constraining effect mentioned above.The conclusions provide references for local governments to optimize land allocation and effectively guide the spatial distribution of the urban population.