全球供应链风险评估与韧性测度——以大豆为例

Global supply chain risk assessment and resilience measurement:Taking soybean as an example

在全球不确定性事件频发背景下,研究全球农产品供应链风险结构及其韧性水平,不仅可为中国更好地利用国际资源与市场、保障农产品进口安全提供科学依据,也可发展典型产品跨越地理空间的风险韧性治理理论与方法,拓展资源地理研究。本文构建了包括供应、采购、运输、需求4个阶段和出口商、物流与运输部门、进口商3个环节的全球供应链分析框架,采用两阶段DEA和CoDEA模型方法,对中国典型进口依赖型农产品大豆的全球供应链风险和韧性进行了评估。结果显示:①2000—2020年大豆进口供应链整体风险不断上升,风险主要来自需求和采购阶段,供应和运输阶段风险较小但有明显增长,与出口国的贸易关系、经济政策不确定性是影响大豆进口供应链安全的长期风险因子。②中国自巴西进口大豆供应链整体韧性相比美国和阿根廷较强,显示了与巴西探索优化供应链协作的充分潜力。③大豆全球供应链风险韧性治理需区分短期和长期风险,短期视角下着重提升对区域减产、海运阻塞、贸易制裁等风险的应对能力,长期视角下着力探索战略层面的布局优化和系统构建,提升供应链话语权和掌控力。

Amid the increasing global uncertainties,studying the risk structure and resilience level of global supply chains for agricultural products highlights their importance.It not only provides China with a scientific foundation for better utilizing international markets and resources and ensuring the safety of agricultural product imports,but also promotes the development of risk resilience management theories and methods for typical products across geographical spaces,thus expanding research in resource geography.This study builds a framework that consists of three sectors(export sectors,logistics and transportation sectors,and import sectors)and four stages(supply,procurement,transportation,and demand).Using twostage DEA and CoDEA models,it evaluates the supply chain risks and resilience of soybeans,which is the typical import-dependent agricultural product in China.The findings indicate that:(1)The risk of China's imported soybean supply chain increased from 2000 to 2020,with risks predominantly from the demand and procurement stages.By contrast,the supply and transport stages are less risky but significantly increased.Trade relations with exporting countries and economic policy uncertainty are the main long-term risk factors that threaten the security of soybean import supply chains.(2)China's soybean supply chain from Brazil is more resilient than that from the US and Argentina,suggesting great potential for improving supply chain cooperation with Brazil.(3)Making the distinction between short-and long-term threats is necessary for managing the risk resilience of the global soybean supply chain.Improving the capacity to react to sudden hazards represented by trade restrictions,maritime obstructions,and trade sanctions should be the priority in the short term.Long-term exploration of system construction and strategic layout optimization is necessary to improve the discursive power of the supply chain.