美国东盟经贸关联及其制约因素解析

An Analysis of U.S.-ASEAN Economic and Trade Relationship and Its Constraints

美国与东盟的经贸合作自20世纪90年代开始得以加强。自克林顿政府以来,美国历届总统的东盟经贸策略各有不同,总体目标是拓展和升级美国与东盟经贸关系以发挥东盟的地缘经济作用。关于双边贸易依存度的研究发现,自2010年以来,美国对东盟进口贸易依存度持续上升,2018年之后上升更快。美国供应链重塑对东盟产生了一定溢出效应,对高科技产业的影响尤为明显。从中间品贸易和产业关联视角来看,美国-东盟贸易中的“中国因素”至关重要。实证分析发现,供应链重塑使得部分对美出口贸易从中国转移至东盟国家,东盟与中国在美国市场上的竞争互补指数上升,但并非完全替代关系。近年来东盟对美出口增长与其深度参与中国供应链密切相关,东盟在产业前后向关联上对中国依赖较高,东盟对美出口增长与中国对东盟出口之间呈现正相关。从制约因素看,美国贸易保护主义和贸易问题泛安全化对双边经贸发展存在制约,东盟区域中心主义和合作发展理念增强了东盟在与美国经贸合作中的讨价还价能力。

Economic and trade cooperation between the United States and ASEAN has strengthened since the 1990s.Since the Clinton administration,the ASEAN economic and trade strategies of American Presidents have varied,but the overall goal is to expand and upgrade the economic and trade relations between the U.S.and ASEAN due to ASEAN's special geo-economic role.This study of bilateral trade dependence finds that the U.S.'s import trade dependence on ASEAN has continued to rise since2010,and the rise has been faster since 2018.The reshaping of the U.S.supply chain has a certain spillover effect on ASEAN,especially on the high-tech industry.Taking into account the impact of intermediate goods trade and interindustry linkage,one can conclude that the“China factor”in U.S.-ASEAN trade is crucial.Empirical analysis shows that reshaping the supply chain shifts part of the export trade to the U.S.from China to ASEAN countries.In the U.S.market,the competitive complementarity index between ASEAN and China has increased,but the two are not completely substitutive.The growth of ASEAN exports to the U.S.in recent years is closely related to its deep involvement in China's supply chain.ASEAN trade is highly dependent on China in terms of both backward and forward linkages.There is a positive correlation between the growth of ASEAN exports to the U.S.and China's exports to ASEAN.From the perspective of constraints,U.S.trade protectionism and pan-securitization of trade issues have restricted bilateral economic and trade development.ASEAN's regional centralism and its cooperative development concept have enhanced ASEAN's bargaining power in economic and trade cooperation with the U.S.