极端气候、农机作业服务市场与粮食产量——基于13个粮食主产区面板数据的实证分析

Extreme Climate,Agricultural Machinery Operation Service Market and Food Production:An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data from 13 Major Grain-producing Areas

本文以极端气候背景下,粮食生产受到极大威胁诱使农户表达出对农机服务需求为出发点,构建了“极端气候—农机作业服务市场—粮食产量”的理论分析框架,并以农机作业服务市场为重点,研究“政府—市场关系”为农机作业服务市场有序运行提供保障,并利用全国13个粮食主产区2011—2020年的面板数据进行实证检验。研究结果显示,极端高温对稻谷有增产作用但会使玉米和小麦减产,极端低温、强降水与连续干旱等极端气候均会使粮食减产。同时,极端气候对粮食产量的影响会受到农机作业服务市场的调节,农机作业服务市场规模的扩大显著削弱了极端低温、强降水和连续干旱对粮食产量的负面影响。同时当农机作业服务组织数量增加,农机作业服务人员素质提升,农机作业服务物质资本投入增加时,显著减弱了极端强降水和连续干旱气候对粮食产量的负面影响。当前农机购置补贴政策有效扩大了农机作业服务市场规模,但政策对市场发挥的正向作用在平原地区和山丘地区表现出明显差异,在平原地区政策对市场发挥的正向作用逐渐减小。上述研究结论表明,结合地形特征调整地区农机购置补贴结构,采取差异化补贴政策,发展农机服务多元供给主体,组织开展农机人员技能培训,加强农机作业服务物质投入是应对极端气候、保障粮食安全的可行路径。

This article starts from the extreme climate background,where food production is greatly threatened and farmers express their demand for agricultural machinery operation services.It constructs a theoretical analysis framework of“extreme climate-agricultural machinery operation service market-grain yield”,and focuses on the agricultural machinery operation service market to study the government and market relationship to provide guarantee for the orderly operation of the agricultural machinery operation service market.The Panel data of 13 major grain producing regions in China from 2011 to 2020 are used for empirical testing.The research results show that extreme high temperatures have an increasing effect on rice production,but can cause a decrease in corn and wheat production.Extreme climates such as low temperatures,heavy rainfall,and continuous drought can all lead to a decrease in grain production.At the same time,the impact of extreme weather on grain yield will be regulated by the agricultural machinery operation service market.The expansion of agricultural machinery operation service market significantly weakens the negative impact of extreme low temperatures,heavy rainfall,and continuous drought on grain production.At the same time,as the number of agricultural machinery operation service organizations increases,the quality of agricultural machinery operation service personnel improves,and the material capital investment in agricultural machinery operation services increases,the negative impact of extreme heavy rainfall and continuous arid climate on grain yield is significantly weakened.The current agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy has effectively expanded the scale of the agricultural machinery operation service market,but the positive effect of the policy on the market shows significant differences between plain and hilly areas,and the positive effect of the policy on the market in plain areas is gradually decreasing.The above research conclusions indicate that adjusting the subsidy structure for agricultural machinery purchase in regions based on terrain characteristics,adopting differentiated subsidy policies,developing diversified supply entities for agricultural machinery services,organizing and conducting skill training for agricultural machinery personnel,and strengthening material investment in agricultural machinery operation services are feasible paths to cope with extreme weather conditions and ensure food security.