新质生产力赋能新型储能技术及其商业模式

New energy storage technologies and their business models empowered by new quality productivity forces

新型储能技术是构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统和新型能源体系的关键支撑技术,在全球气候变化与碳中和背景下被赋予了新的地位,是丰富和发展新质生产力的新动能。储能技术为新能源消纳和大比例并网提供了稳定支撑,是能源的“粮仓”,是能源的“银行”,是新能源的“解药”,是新型能源体系中不可或缺的成员,发展新型储能技术是中国实现“碳达峰、碳中和”(“双碳”)目标和推进能源变革的必由之路。新质生产力下的能源转型,碳基传统能源向零碳基新能源转型是必然选择,新型储能技术支撑下的新能源肩负着能源转型、能源安全和能源独立的新使命。新型储能技术正在不断发展,技术路线百花齐放、各有千秋,应用场景多样,需求多元,技术链和产业链蓬勃发展,装机规模增长迅速,市场机制、商业模式以及标准体系日趋完善。新型储能技术包括电化学储能、机械储能、电磁储能、热储能和氢储能等。不同储能技术的原理、典型储能场景、市场需求和建设成本等存在较大差异。目前,锂离子电池储能占据绝对主导地位,其他储能技术多元化发展,应用逐渐增多。2017年以来,新型储能保持快速增长态势,年增长率超过50%;2023年底,新型储能的累计装机规模突破35 GW,占比为40.6%。按照国家新型储能发展指导意见和实施方案,到2030年中国将部署约177 GW的新型储能系统,2024—2030年新增新型储能装机规模的年均增长率将超过30%,新型储能技术及体系达到成熟水平。新型储能在“源、网、荷”侧均存在灵活多样的商业模式和成本回收机制,可以独立主体身份参与市场化交易,也可在电力交易系统中与传统主体联合,共同参与市场交易。目前,新型储能技术正处于从商业化初期向规模化发展的阶段,在技术层面和经济层面上均面临挑战:①以锂离子电池为代表的电化学储能无法完全避免起火爆炸的风险,其使用寿命、能量密度和成本需要进一步优化;②运维管控无法满足新能源发电的特殊生产要求;③储能初期投资较高,盈利模式尚在探索,长远、可持续、健康发展需要进一步的政策支持。新型储能正朝着技术多元化、全流程安全、智慧调控等方向发展,将重点解决高安全、低成本、长寿命、高效率、大容量、高集成、智能化等关键问题。未来新型储能的商业模式将与电力市场改革进程深度绑定,将逐步向共享储能和独立储能模式发展。适应不同应用场景与需求的多类型储能技术通过有机结合所形成的集成混合储能系统,综合了多种储能技术的优势,通过引入云计算、大数据、物联网、移动互联网、人工智能、区块链和边缘计算等先进数字科学技术,助力新型储能与“源、网、荷”智慧融合发展,能够提供更加灵活、高效和经济的能源存储解决方案,提高新型电力系统和新型能源体系的系统安全性,是新质生产力赋能下新型储能技术发展的方向,对推动中国能源高质量转型发展和实现“双碳”目标具有重要的意义。

As a key supporting technology for building new-type power system and energy system based on new energies,the new energy storage technology has been endowed with a new status in the context of global climate change and carbon neutrality,and is a new driving force for enriching and developing new quality productive forces.The energy storage technology can provide stable support for new energy consumption and large-scale grid connection,acting as the granary and bank of energy,the solutions for new energy issues,and an indispensable member in the new energy system.Developing new energy storage technology is an inevitable path for China to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality(dual carbon)and promote energy revolution.The transition of carbon-based traditional energy to zero-carbon energy under new quality productive forces is an inevitable choice,and the new energies supported by new energy storage technology shoulder the new missions of energy transformation,energy security,and energy independence.New energy storage technology is constantly developing,with a variety of technical routes,each with its own advantages,diverse application scenarios,and multifaceted demands;the technology chains and industry chains are thriving,with rapid growth in installed capacity and increasingly perfect market mechanisms,business models,and standard systems.New energy storage technologies include electrochemical energy storage,mechanical energy storage,electromagnetic energy storage,thermal energy storage,and hydrogen energy storage,etc.There are significant differences in the principles of different energy storage technologies,typical energy storage scenarios,market demands,and construction costs.Currently,lithium-ion battery energy storage occupies an absolute dominant position,and other energy storage technologies are being developed in a diversified manner with gradually increasing applications.Since 2017,new energy storage has maintained a rapid growth trend,with the annual growth rate of more than 50%.By the end of 2023,the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage exceeded 35 GW,accounting for 40.6%.According to the national development guidance and implementation plan for new energy storage,about 177 GW of new energy storage systems will be deployed by 2030,and the average annual growth rate of new energy storage installed capacity will be more than 30%from 2024 to 2030,and China’s new energy storage technology and system will reach a mature level.New energy storage has flexible and diverse business models and cost recovery mechanisms in terms of the source,grid,and load.It can participate in market transactions as an independent entity,or together with traditional entities in the power trading system.At present,the new energy storage technology faces a shift from the early stage of commercialization to large-scale development,as well as both technical and economic challenges.Firstly,electrochemical energy storage represented by lithium-ion batteries cannot completely avoid the risk of fire and explosion,and its service life,energy density,and cost need to be further optimized.Secondly,operation and maintenance control cannot meet the special production requirements for new energy power generation.Thirdly,the initial investment of new energy storage is high,the profit model is still being explored,and long-term sustainable and healthy development requires further policy support.New energy storage is developing towards technological diversification,full-process safety,and intelligent regulation and control,focusing on solving key issues such as high safety,low cost,long life,high efficiency,large capacity,high integration and intelligence.In the future,the business model of new energy storage will be deeply linked to the process of power market reform,and will gradually develop towards shared energy storage and independent energy storage models.The integrated hybrid energy storage systems formed by the organic combination of multiple types of energy storage technologies can adapt to different application scenarios and demands,and integrate the advantages of various energy storage technologies.Through the introduction of advanced digital scientific and technological methods such as cloud computing,big data,Internet of Things,Mobile Internet,artificial intelligence,blockchain,and edge computing,it facilitates the intelligent integration of new energy storage with the source,grid,and load.It can provide more flexible,efficient,and economical energy storage solutions,improving the system safety of the new power and energy systems.It indicates the development trend of new energy storage technology under the empowerment of new quality productive forces,which is of great significance in promoting the high-quality transformation and development of energies and achieving the goal of double carbon in China.