南水北调中线工程建设期水源地及受水区碳平衡时空演化特征

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Balance in Water Source Areas and Water Receiving Areas during the Construction Period of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project

掌握重大引调水工程水源地和受水区域碳平衡时空演化规律及其影响因素,有助于制定符合区域特点的低碳绿色发展政策、提高减碳增汇政策的科学性。以县域碳排放量和植被固碳量数据为基础,利用碳平衡系数、Kernel密度函数分析南水北调中线工程建设期前后,其水源地和受水区域县域尺度碳平衡时空演变特征分析。结果表明:南水北调中线工程水源地碳平衡能力呈现出“下降-稳定”趋势,汉江流域汉江及丹江沿线各县(市、区)碳平衡能力降级情况严重;受水区域碳平衡能力呈现出“上升-波动下降-波动上升”的时序特征,以中大型城市辐射圈的碳失衡情况逐渐严重,空间集聚效应增强,南水北调中线工程236县(市、区)碳平衡能力呈现出“西高东低”的空间分布格局。

Mastering the spatio-temporal evolution law of carbon balance in major water sources areas and water receiving areas of significant water diversion projects,as well as its influencing factors,will contribute to formulate the low-carbon green development policies with regional characteristics and improve the scientific nature of carbon reduction and sink enhancement policies.Based on the county scale carbon emissions and vegetation carbon sequestration data,this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon balance at county scale in the water source areas and receiving areas before and after the construction of the Middle Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion using the carbon balance coefficient and Kernel density functions.The results show that the carbon balance capacity of the Middle Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion presents a“declining and stabilization”trend,while the counties(cities,districts)along the Hanjiang River and Danjiang River in the Hanjiang River basin are seriously degraded.The carbon balance capacity of the water-receiving areas presents a sequence of“rise-fluctuating decline-fluctuating rise”.The carbon imbalance in the radiation areas of medium and large cities is gradually worsening,and the spatial agglomeration effect is strengthening.The carbon balance capacity of 236 counties(cities,districts)along the Middle Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion presents a spatial distribution pattern of“higher in the west and lower in the east”.