博弈论-TOPSIS法在城市洪涝韧性评估中的应用

Application of Urban Flood Resilience Assessment Based on Game Theory-TOPSIS Method

为评估洪涝灾害情景下城市韧性水平,改善洪涝灾害对城市运行的影响,基于韧性城市理论,从抵御能力、恢复能力、适应能力3个维度建立洪涝灾害情景下城市韧性评估指标体系,应用基于博弈论的组合赋权法结合层次分析法(AHP)确定主观权重,结合熵权法确定客观权重,利用逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)确定最终权重,形成组合赋权-TOPSIS城市韧性评估模型。基于某市2010—2022年相关数据,分析其在洪涝灾害情景下的城市韧性指数。结果表明:利用该模型可以分析城市韧性水平、抵御能力、恢复能力、适应能力随时间变化趋势;该市在洪涝灾害情景下的韧性水平逐年提升,但应注意人口结构对韧性指数的影响。

In order to assess the urban resilience level under flood disaster scenarios and reduce the impact of flood disasters on the urban operation,the assess index system for the urban resilience under flood disaster scenarios was established from three dimensions of resilience,recovery ability,and adaptive ability based on the theory of resilient city.The subjective weights were determined by the game theory combined with weighting-AHP method,and the objective weights were determined by entropy weighting method.The final weights were determined by the TOPSIS method,forming the combined with weighting-TOPSIS urban resilience assessment model.Based on the relevant data of a city from 2010 to 2022,its urban resilience index under the flood disaster scenario was analyzed.The results show that the model can be used to analyze the trends of urban resilience level,resistance capacity,recovery capacity,and adaptive capacity over time;and that the city's resilience level under flood disaster scenarios has been increasing year by year,but attentions should be paid to the impact of the demographic structure on the resilience index.