中国粮食生产的气候变化适应水平及其机制研究

The Adaptation Level and Mechanism of Grain Production to Climate Change in China

本文利用全国农村固定观察点数据,估计了粮食生产对气候变化的整体适应水平及其机制。研究发现,适应行为整体上缓解了高温对粮食单产不利影响的52.5%~63.5%。水稻和玉米对高温的适应水平明显高于小麦。值得注意的是,适应行为未有效缓解过量降水的不利影响。农业技术进步与适应技术采纳、要素投入调整是粮食生产有效适应气候变化的重要机制。未来应提升农业技术进步在农业适应气候变化中的贡献,全面提高粮食生产的气候变化适应水平。

The overall adaptation level and mechanisms of grain production to climate change is estimated using national rural fixed observation points data.Adaptive behaviors have alleviated 52.5%-63.5%of the adverse impact of high temperatures,with rice and maize more adaptable than wheat.However,adaptive behavior has not effectively mitigated excessive precipitation impacts.Technological progress,adaptive technology adoption,and input adjustments are key adaptation mechanisms.Future efforts should enhance agricultural technological contributions to comprehensively strengthen grain production's climate changeadaptationcapacity.