外需冲击、集聚经济与就业的行业间溢出效应

External Demand Shocks,Agglomeration Economies,and Inter-industry Spillover Effects of Employment

本文研究外需冲击影响就业的行业间溢出效应及其实现机制。研究发现:(1)外需扩张对就业的影响存在正向的行业间溢出效应;(2)外需扩张下地区劳动力规模增加既可以通过降低劳动力成本,也可以通过形成集聚经济提升生产率,引致外需扩张影响就业的正向行业间溢出效应;(3)外需扩张下跨地区流入劳动力规模增加主要通过生产率提升渠道,本地农村劳动力规模增加主要通过低劳动力成本渠道,二者在外需扩张影响就业的正向行业间溢出效应中发挥着不同的作用。

We study the inter-industry spillover effect of external demand shocks on employment and find that:(1)there is a positive inter-industry spillover effect of external demand expansion on employment;(2)the increase in the size of regional labor market can both reduce labor costs and enhance productivity through agglomeration economies,leading to a positive inter-industry spillover effect of external demand shocks on employment;(3)the increase in the size of labor flowing across regions mainly through the channel of productivity improvement,while the increase in the size of local rural labor mainly through the channel of low labor costs,which play different roles in the inter-industry spillover effect of external demand expansion on employment.