中非贸易对人民币区域化的影响研究

Study on the Impact of China-African Trade on RMB Regionalization

论文基于非洲54个国家和中国2010-2021年的面板数据,探究中非贸易对人民币非洲区域化的影响,并分析其影响机制。研究发现,中非贸易规模扩大能够显著推进人民币在非洲的区域化进程。异质性分析发现,相较于低收入国家,中非贸易规模扩大对较高收入国家的人民币非洲区域化程度的促进作用更明显。机制检验表明,中非贸易深化能够通过降低双边贸易成本和提升非洲国家对中国的贸易依存度来促进人民币的非洲区域化。在“一带一路”倡议下,中国与非洲国家在政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通和民心相通等方面开展合作,有助于推动人民币在非洲的使用。从贸易结构角度出发,中国与非洲的贸易互补性强,6类商品和7类商品的出口能显著促进人民币在非洲的使用。

This article,based on panel data from 54 African countries and China from 2010 to 2021,explores the impact of China-Africa trade on the regionalization of the Chinese Yuan(RMB)in Africa and analyzes its specific mechanisms.The study finds that the expansion of China-Africa trade significantly promotes the regionalization of the RMB in Africa.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that compared to low-income countries,the impact of trade expansion on the regionalization of the RMB is more pronounced in higher-income countries.Mechanism tests indicate that the deepening of China-Africa trade promotes RMB regionalization in Africa by reducing bilateral trade costs and increasing African countries'trade dependence on China.Under the Belt and Road Initiative,China and African countries have engaged in cooperation across policy communication,infrastructure connectivity,trade facilitation,financial integration,and people-to-people exchanges.This cooperation is instrumental in advancing the utilization of the RMB in Africa.From a trade structure perspective,the significant trade complementarity between China and Africa,particularly the export of goods in categories 6 and 7,substantially enhances the adoption of the RMB in the region.