经济韧性测度指标体系设计与实证研究

Design and Empirical Study of an Economic Resilience Measurement Index System

当前,我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,经济韧性为区域经济有效应对各种危机和挑战、保持经济发展的潜力和活力发挥越来越重要的作用。本文通过研究经济韧性的概念内涵,构建经济韧性测度指标体系并建立测算模型,探究我国经济韧性发展水平和风险防控前后各省(区、市)经济韧性差异变化,在此基础上提出进一步增强经济韧性的政策建议。研究显示,2004—2023年我国经济韧性总体提升较快,科技创新是影响经济韧性的最重要因素,社会保障水平、基础设施、区域协调和产业结构等对提升经济韧性水平影响较为显著;各地区经济韧性水平差异明显,东部沿海地区经济韧性水平总体好于中部地区、西部地区和东北地区,多数地区2022年经济韧性水平比2019年有所提升,统筹风险防范和经济社会发展取得良好成效。

At present,China’s economy has shifted from a stage of rapid expansion to one that prioritizes high-quality growth.The resilience of the economy is becoming increasingly vital in enabling regional economy to effectively confront various crises and challenges,thereby preserving the potential for continued economic progress.This study delves into the meaning of economic resilience,establishes a set of measurement indicators,and builds a model to assess the development of economic resilience in China,as well as the changes across provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities)of China before and after risk control.It also provides policy suggestions to further strengthen economic resilience.The research reveals that China’s economic resilience has seen a substantial increase from 2004 to 2023,with technological innovation emerging as the most significant factor.Other factors such as social security,infrastructure,regional coordination,and industrial structure also play important roles in strengthening economic resilience.Notable disparities exist among regions,with the eastern coastal areas generally having higher levels of economic resilience compared to the central,western,and northeastern regions.Most regions experienced an improvement in economic resilience from 2019 to 2022,demonstrating success in balancing risk management with economic and social development.