巢湖流域生境质量时空演变特征与多情景模拟研究

Spatial and temporal evolution of habitat quality and multi-scenario simulation in Chaohu Lake Basin

运用PLUS模型模拟巢湖流域土地利用变化,耦合InVEST模型探究多情景下生境质量变化规律。结果表明:2000—2020年耕地为建设用地扩张提供贡献度最高。自然发展情景下,耕地、林地减少;经济发展情景下,耕地流失最严重,达410.45 km^(2);绿色发展情景下,林地面积增加。2000—2020年生境质量平均值分别为0.243、0.236、0.231,低质量区是影响生境质量的主要等级类型。各情景下生境质量指数均值为0.228、0.226、0.229,自然发展情景中,较低、低质量区是生境质量恶化的主要区域;经济发展情景下,较低、低质量区转移剧烈;绿色发展情景下,耕地向林地转移是生境质量提升的关键,是最具生境优化潜力的发展情景。

The PLUS model was used to simulate the land use change in the Chaohu Lake Basin and the InVEST model was coupled to explore the change law of habitat quality under multiple scenarios.The results showed that from 2000 to 2020 cultivated land contributed the highest value to construction land.Under the natural development scenario cultivated land and forest land decreased.Under the economic development scenario the loss of cultivated land was the most serious reaching 410.45 km^(2).Under the green development scenario the area of forest land increased from decreasing.From 2000 to 2020 the average values of habitat quality were 0.2430.236 and 0.231 respectively and low-quality areas were the main grade types affecting habitat quality.The mean values of habitat quality index were 0.2280.226 and 0.229 under each scenario and the low and low quality areas were the main components of habitat quality deterioration in the natural development scenario.Under the economic development scenario the transfer of lowquality and low-quality areas is drastic.Under the green development scenario the transfer of cultivated land to forest land is the key to improving habitat quality and it is the development scenario with the greatest potential for habitat optimization.