淮河流域安徽段生态脆弱性时空分析与预测

Temporal and spatial analysis and prediction of ecological vulnerability in Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin

基于“经济-社会-自然”模型,构建淮河流域安徽段生态脆弱性评价指标体系;利用CRITIC赋权和综合指数法测算安徽段生态脆弱性指数;借助Sen+MannKendall检验、标准差椭圆、GM(1,1)-Markov模型,分析2012—2022年安徽段生态脆弱性时间趋势及其空间特征,预测2023—2027年淮河流域安徽段的生态脆弱性指数。结果表明:淮河流域安徽段2012—2022年生态脆弱性指数呈下降趋势,生态脆弱性指数突变点处于2016—2017年。淮河流域安徽段生态脆弱性指数呈中间高四周低的格局,各地区生态脆弱性重心空间集聚态势有所增强,且在重心的迁移范围上,南北方向的收缩态势要强于东西方向。安徽段2023—2027年生态脆弱性等级处于第Ⅱ等级,并且有向第Ⅰ等级发展的趋势。

Based on the"economy-society-nature"model the ecological vulnerability assessment index system of Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin is constructed.The ecological vulnerabili-ty index of Anhui section is measured by the weight of CRITIC and comprehensive index method and the Sen+MannKendall test standard deviation oval and G 11-Markov model are adopted.This paper analyzed the temporal trend and spatial characteristics of ecological vulnerability in An-hui section from 2012 to 2022 and predicted the ecological vulnerability index of Anhui section in Huaihe River Basin from 2023 to 2027.The results showed that the ecological vulnerability index of Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin showed a downward trend during 2012—2022 and the abrupt point of the ecological vulnerability index was in 2016—2017.The ecological vulnerability index of the Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin showed a pattern of high in the middle and low in the four sides and the spatial clustering trend of ecological vulnerability center in each re-gion was enhanced and the contraction trend in the migration range of the center of ecological vul-nerability was stronger in the north-south direction than in the east-west direction.The ecological vulnerability level of Anhui section in 2023—2027 is in the second grade and has a strong trend of development towards the first grade.