新型城镇化政策试点能否引致县域金融资源配置优化?

Can New Urbanisation Policy Pilots Lead to Optimised Financial Resource Allocation in County Areas?

县域信贷资金需求对金融资源缺乏吸引力,导致县域金融资源配置低效。新型城镇化有利于促进消费和投资,实现良性循环,蕴含巨大内需潜力,因此,以新型城镇化政策试点为准自然实验,利用县域面板数据和多期双重差分法系统考察政策试点对县域金融资源配置的引致效应。研究结果表明,政策试点对县域金融机构网点规模没有显著影响,但对机构类型多元化和存贷比提升有显著正向影响,县域产业结构升级伴生的金融价值和融资需求在引致效应中发挥着重要作用,而且这种效应在人口净流出县更为明显,在粮食主产区县域被削弱。据此提出政府应加快推进县域新型城镇化建设、保障政策推进对金融资源发挥可持续性的引致效应、重视金融机构在新型城镇化产业融资方面的作用等政策建议。

The lack of attraction of county credit fund demand to financial resources has led to inefficiency of financial resource allocation in counties.New urbanization is conducive to promoting a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment,which holds great potential for domestic demand.This paper takes the new urbanisation policy pilot as a quasi-natural experiment,and systematically examines the causal effects of the policy pilot on the scale,structure and efficiency of county financial resource allocation using county panel data and multi-period doubledifference method.The results show that the policy pilot has no significant effect on the scale of county financial institutions'outlets,but has a significant positive effect on the diversification of institution types and the increase of deposit and loan ratios.The financial value and financing demand accompanying the upgrading of the county's industrial structure play an important role in the causative effect,and that this effect is more pronounced in the counties of net population outflows and weakened in the counties of the main grain-producing areas.Accordingly,it is proposed that the government should provide support in terms of local subsidised loans for projects related to the integration of production and cities in new urbanisation,and that financial institutions should vigorously develop special loans for the transformation of county industries and consumption in new urbanisation,and other policy suggestions.