中美贸易摩擦背景下出口退税政策对农产品贸易出口的影响——基于三重差分及合成控制法分析

The Impact of Export Tax Rebate Policy on Agricultural Trade Exports under the Background of Sino-US Trade Frictions——Based on the Analysis of Triple Difference and Synthetic Control Method

出口退税政策作为调节贸易出口最直接的贸易工具,其政策调整是否能够缓解中美贸易摩擦的负面影响有待检验。本文利用2010年1月—2020年12月美国农业部月度数据,构建双重差分、三重差分及合成控制等模型,评估中美贸易摩擦冲击下出口退税政策对农产品贸易出口的影响。研究发现:在遭受贸易冲击时,较高的出口退税率有利于出口农产品质量的提升,但会促使中国出口到美国的农产品转移到其他国家,导致中国出口到美国的农产品规模下降,该结论通过合成控制法检验后仍然成立;出口退税率的上调能降低农产品的退出风险,提升出口农产品质量。进一步研究发现,在目的国贸易政策不确定性加剧的情况下,较高的出口退税率更能促进出口农产品质量的提升。本文检验了中美贸易摩擦背景下出口退税政策的实施效果,为制定应对贸易冲击的出口退税方案提供理论参考。

This paper utilized monthly data from the US Department of Agriculture from January 2010 to December 2020 to construct models such as double difference,triple difference,and synthetic control,to assess the impact of export tax rebate policies on agricultural trade exports under the impact of Sino-US trade friction.It finds that:during trade shocks,higher export tax rebate rates still facilitate the improvement of export agricultural product quality,but they encourage Chinese exports of agricultural products to the US to shift to other countries,thereby leading to a decrease in the volume of Chinese agricultural exports to the US.This result holds true even after being tested by the synthetic control method.In addition,raising the export tax rebate rates can reduce the risk of agricultural product withdrawal and thereby improve the quality of exported agricultural products.Further research shows that higher export tax rebate rates are more effective in promoting the improvement of export agricultural product quality in situations where there is increased uncertainty in destination country trade policies.This paper examines the implementation effects of export tax rebate policies under Sino-US trade friction and provides theoretical references for formulating export tax rebate schemes to address trade shocks.