邻近性、技术关联与京津冀城市群产业结构路径演化

Proximity,Technological Connectivity,and the Path Evolution of Industrial Structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomerations

演化经济地理学认为一个国家或地区的发展具有路径依赖效应。基于产品空间理论和方法,使用2003—2015年中国工业企业数据库的制造企业数据,对京津冀城市群产业技术关联进行研究,并佐以2016—2023年城市统计年鉴数据分析该地区二位代码行业结构演化特征。结果发现:(1)2003—2015年,该地区转化行业的技术关联度变化值大多是正数,说明这些转化行业与原有行业的技术关联度高,反映京津冀城市群经济结构演化具有路径依赖效应。(2)实证表明,2003—2015年间前后两个时段京津冀城市群整体发展受到技术关联的影响都为正向,且具有继承性和一贯性,体现了路径依赖特征,但各阶段区域内部呈现一定异质性,多数城市产业结构演化遵循路径依赖规律的同时,也有少数城市存在因政策等因素导致路径突破的情形。(3)2015—2022年的统计分析进一步佐证了京津冀各城市行业结构演化受原有优势和路径依赖影响和约束的论断。

Evolutionary economic geography holds that the development of a country or region is constrained by its prior factors,resul-ting in path-dependence effects.This article is based on the theory and methods of product space,using manufacturing enterprise data from the China Industrial Enterprise Database from 2003 to 2015,to study the industrial technology correlation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations,to determine whether its development is limited and affected by its original industries,and whether there is a breakthrough path for development.The results showed that:(1)From 2003 to 2015,the changes in the technological correlation between the transformed industries in the region were mostly positive,indicating a high degree of technological correlation between these transformed industries and their original industries,reflecting the path dependence effect of the economic structure evolution of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations;(2)Empirical evidence shows that the overall development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations was positively influenced by technological linkages during the two periods of 2003-2008 and 2009-2015,with inheritance and inertia,reflecting path dependence characteristics.However,there is also a certain heterogeneity within each stage of the region.While most cities'industrial structure evolution follows the path dependence law,there are also a few cities that have experienced path breakthroughs due to policy and other factors.(3)The statistical analysis for 2015-2022 further confirms the assertion that the evolution of industry structure in various cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is influenced and constrained by existing advantages and path dependence.The above findings have certain decision-making implications for the future economic struc-tural transformation and evolution path selection of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations.