气象因素对水果产量的影响及小波分析研究

Research on The Impact of Meteorological Factors on Fruit Yield and Wavelet Analysis

【目的】充分了解气候变化对山西省水果产量的影响,为山西省应对水果产量受气候变化的影响提供理论依据和决策支持。【方法】以1978年—2018年气候资料和水果产量资料为基础,采用CEEMD方法分离水果产量,通过M-K突变分析和趋势分析研究山西省各气候要素的变化特征,采用交叉小波分析气候产量与气象因子周期共振性,研究气候变化对水果单产的影响,并建立水果单产和气候因子之间的一元线性回归模型。【结果】山西全省降水呈无明显上升趋势,相对湿度和日照时数均呈显著明显下降趋势,年均气温上升幅度较大;苹果、梨和葡萄单产都有较大幅度的提高,对应的气候产量有较大的波动,但提高的速度较慢,其中苹果的气候产量有明显的提高趋势;苹果、梨、葡萄的相对产量符合相应气候产量趋势,说明气候变化显著影响水果产量;水果单产与气候因子的回归模型整体显著,且相对湿度和日照时数与水果单产之间呈负相关,降水和年平均气温与水果单产之间呈正相关。【结论】不同气候变化对不同水果的响应程度各不相同,山西省应采取选育抗逆性强的品种、改变栽培种植方式等合理措施,促进水果产量增长和品质提高。

【Objective】Fully understand the impact of climate change on fruit production in Shanxi Province,and provide theoretical basis and decision support for Shanxi Province to cope with the impact of climate change on fruit production.【Methods】Based on the climate data and fruit yield data from 1978 to 2018,the CEEMD method was used to separate the fruit yield.The change characteristics of various climate elements in Shanxi Province were studied through M-K mutation analysis and trend analysis.The cross-wavelet analysis was used to study the periodic resonance between climate yield and meteorological factors,to investigate the impact of climate change on the per-unit yield of fruits,and to establish a unary linear regression model between the per-unit yield of fruits and climate factors.【Results】The results showed that the precipitation in the whole province of Shanxi had no obvious upward trend,the relative humidity and the sunshine duration both showed a significant and obvious downward trend,and the annual average temperature had a large increase;the per-unit yields of apples,pears and grapes had all increased significantly,and the corresponding climate yields had large fluctuations,but the rate of increase was slow,among which the climate yield of apples had an obvious upward trend;the relative yields of apples,pears and grapes were in line with the corresponding climate yield trends,indicating that climate change significantly affected the fruit yield;the regression models between the per-unit yield of fruits and climate factors were all significant,and there was a negative correlation between relative humidity and sunshine duration and the per-unit yield of fruits,and a positive correlation between precipitation and annual average temperature and the per-unit yield of fruits.【Conclusion】The response degrees of different fruits to different climate changes were different.Shanxi Province should take reasonable measures such as breeding cultivars with strong stress resistance and changing cultivation and planting methods to promote the increase of fruit yield and the improvement of quality.