中国对RCEP成员国机电产品出口贸易潜力研究

Study on China's Export Trade Potential of Mechanical and Electrical Products to RCEP Partners

RCEP作为全球最大自由贸易协定的生效实施有利于拓展亚太区域贸易往来。基于中国对RCEP成员国机电产品出口总量及出口结构,着重构建扩展引力模型进行实证分析,得出经济规模、地理距离、人口规模和对外直接投资存量均对中国机电产品出口有影响。利用回归结果测算各个国家的贸易潜力,结果表明中国对RCEP成员国机电产品的出口潜力大部分处于贸易潜力开拓型。据此提出扩大与贸易伙伴国的合作与交流及增强产业链、价值链的分工合作的对策建议。

As the world's largest free trade agreement,the implementation of the RCEP Agreement is conducive to expanding and deepening trade in the Asia-Pacific region.Based on the analysis of China's total export volume and export structure of mechanical and electrical products of RCEP member states,the empirical analysis focuses on the construction of an extended gravity model,and it is concluded that the economic scale,geographical distance,population scale and foreign direct investment stock all have an impact on the export of China's mechanical and electrical products.It uses the regression results to measure the trade potential of each country.The results show that most of China's export potential of mechanical and electrical products of RCEP members is in the pioneering trade potential.On this basis,it puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to expand the cooperation and exchanges with the trading partners and enhance the division of labor and cooperation between the industrial chain and value chain.