基于SD模型的供应链联盟稳定性分析

Stability Analysis of Supply Chain Alliance Based on SD Model

识别供应链联盟稳定性的核心影响因素:适配性、融合性及共赢性,构建子系统因素的因果回路图以解析因素间的相互作用及其对联盟稳定性的影响机制。基于此,创建供应链联盟稳定性的系统流图、并对变量赋值、建立函数关系以完成动力学模型。模型验证后,开展基于敏感性分析的模拟仿真,鉴别出对供应链联盟稳定性影响的关键因素。研究表明,收益分配合理、资源集成性和成员经验对稳定性有显著的正面影响,而冲突、道德隐患和外部环境风险则对稳定性构成主要威胁。提出相应的措施建议,为促进供应链联盟的持续稳定发展提供参考。

Firstly,the core influencing factors of supply chain alliance stability are identified:adaptability,integration,and win-win.Then,causal loop diagrams of the subsystem factors are constructed to analyze the interactions between factors and their impact mechanisms on alliance stability.Based on this,a system flowchart of supply chain alliance stability is created,variables are assigned,and functional relationships are established to complete the dynamic model.After model validation,simulation based on sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the key factors that affect the stability of the supply chain alliance.The research shows that reasonable revenue distribution,resource integration,and member experience have significant positive effects on stability,while conflicts,moral risks,and external environmental risks pose major threats to stability.Corresponding measures are proposed to provide reference for promoting the sustainable and stable development of the supply chain alliance.