基于PLUS-InVEST模型的福建省碳储量时空演变与预测

Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon stock in Fujian Province based on the PLUS-InVEST model

【目的】探究土地利用变化对福建省碳储量的影响,预测不同土地利用情景下的碳储量,为该区域土地规划与合理利用提供依据。【方法】基于福建省2000—2020年土地利用数据,分析2000—2020年福建省碳储量变化及其对土地利用变化的响应;采用PLUS模型预测2030年福建省土地利用格局,并用InVEST模型评估2030年碳储量。【结果】(1)2000—2020年福建省耕地面积减小了1758.44 km^(2),建设用地面积增大了3105.50 km^(2)。(2)2000—2020年福建省碳储量和碳密度均呈逐年下降的趋势,碳储量减少了13.02 Tg,碳密度降低了1.06 Mg·hm^(-2);碳储量的空间分布存在显著差异,呈西北部与中部高、东南部低的分布格局。(3)福建省碳储量多情景预测结果显示:2030年在自然演化和粮食安全情景下福建省碳储量较2020年分别减少4.27 Tg和2.12 Tg,仅在生态保护情景下增加5.29 Tg。碳储量变化的区域主要集中在山区和沿海平原。【结论】合理的土地利用规划与生态保护措施有助于提高福建省碳储量。

【Objective】This study aimed to explore the impact of land use changes on carbon stock variation in Fujian Province,and predict carbon stocks under different land use scenarios to provide scientific evidence for land planning and rational land use in the region.【Method】Utilizing land use data from Fujian Province from 2000 to 2020,the changes in carbon stocks and their response to land use changes were analyzed.The PLUS model was employed to predict land use patterns for 2030,and the InVEST model was used to assess carbon stocks for the same year.【Result】(1)From 2000 to 2020,the area of arable land in Fujian Province decreased by 1758.44 km^(2),while the area of built-up land increased by 3105.50 km^(2).(2)During this period,both carbon stocks and carbon density declined annually,with carbon stocks decreasing by 13.02 Tg and carbon density decreasing by 1.06 Mg·hm^(-2).There are significant differences in the spatial distribution of carbon stocks,with an overall pattern of higher carbon stocks in the north-west and centre and lower stocks in the south-east.(3)Projections for 2030 indicated that under the natural evolution and food security scenarios,carbon stocks in Fujian Province were expected to decrease by 4.27 and 2.12 Tg,respectively,compared to 2020 levels.Conversely,under the ecological protection scenario,carbon stocks are projected to increase by 5.29 Tg.Areas with notable changes in carbon stocks were primarily concentrated in mountainous and coastal plain regions.【Conclusion】Scientific land use planning and ecological protection measures were essential for enhancing carbon stocks in Fujian Province.