基于复杂网络的金融科技风险传染研究

Study on Fintech Risk Contagion from the Perspective of Complex Networks

金融科技在极大地提升金融服务效率的同时,金融科技风险与传统金融风险相互交叉关联,金融科技风险传染问题备受关注。基于复杂网络视角,采用涵盖不同风险因子的解释变量体系,融合LASSO变量选择构建单指标模型,搭建金融科技风险传染复杂网络,分析金融科技公司、传统金融主体与监管机构之间的风险传染关系。研究发现:(1)金融科技行业是金融市场中风险的主要传播者,证券业、保险与信托业是风险的主要接收者,银行业则承担维持金融系统稳定性的角色;(2)风险的传染沿特定方向进行,并非随机蔓延至整个金融网络;(3)监管当局可以结合当前所处的风险周期,制定阶段性的风险防范策略,优化监管效率。研究有助于厘清金融科技风险传染的具体过程,对复杂金融网络的风险防范有重要意义。

While fintech has significantly enhanced the efficiency of financial services,the intersection and correlation between fintech risks and traditional financial risks have become increasingly prominent.The issue of fintech risk contagion has thus garnered considerable attention.From the perspective of complex networks and using explanatory variable systems that cover various risk factors,this study utilizes the LASSO variable selection to construct a single index model.The model builds a complex network for the contagion of fintech risks and analyzes the risk contagion relationship among fintech companies,traditional financial entities,and regulatory bodies.The study found that:(1)The fintech industry is the principal propagator of risk in the financial market,while the securities sector,insurance,and trust industries are the main receptors of such risk.The banking sector plays the role of maintaining the stability of the financial system;(2)The contagion of risk follows a specific pathway rather than spreading haphazardly across the entire financial network;(3)Regulatory authorities can formulate phased risk prevention strategies according to the current risk cycle,thereby enhancing regulatory efficiency.This research plays a crucial role in clarifying the specific process of the contagion of fintech risks,which is of significant importance for the risk prevention of complex financial networks.