乡村振兴战略省际扩散的时空演进、影响因素及提升路径

The Spatiotemporal Evolution,Influencing Factors and Improvement Paths of Inter-Provincial Diffusion of Rural Revitalization Strategy

基于213份省级政策文本,系统分析了乡村振兴战略省际扩散的时空演进机理,并通过模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方法剖析乡村振兴战略省际扩散的影响因素及路径。研究结果表明,时间上,高位推动使得乡村振兴战略省际扩散曲线呈R型,表现出初期急剧爆发、后期趋缓饱和的特征;空间上,在多中心效应、层级效应和邻近效应的作用下,乡村振兴战略省际扩散整体呈现出由南向西推进的趋势;从影响因素来看,乡村振兴战略省际扩散是多个因素共同作用的结果,且正、反向结果与影响因素组合之间存在着非对称关系;就路径而言,基于核心条件归纳出了4种乡村振兴战略高扩散路径,分别是双重需求型、个人特质型、社会压力型以及经济基础型。基于此,为推动乡村振兴战略省际扩散的持续深入,提出提升信息技术应用水平、增加地方官员异地调任经历、发挥公众和社会舆论的作用、大力发展地区经济等建议。

Based on 213 provincial policy texts,this paper systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of the inter-provincial diffusion of rural revitalization strategy,and analyzes its influencing factors and combination paths through fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis(fsQCA).The results indicate that,temporally,the high-level promotion results in an R-shaped diffusion curve for the rural revitalization strategy,showing the characteristics of rapid outbreak in the early stage and gradual saturation in the later stage.Spatially,under the influence of polycentric effect,hierarchical effect and proximity effect,the diffusion of rural revitalization strategy exhibits a trend of advancing from South to West China.As for influencing factors,the inter-provincial diffusion of rural revitalization strategy is the result of the joint action of multiple factors,and there is an asymmetric relationship between positive and negative outcomes and the combination of influencing factors.In terms of diffusion paths,four high-diffusion paths of rural revitalization strategy are summarized based on the core conditions,namely“dual demand”,“individual traits”,“social pressure”and“economic foundation”.Finally,this paper proposes some suggestions to continuously promote the inter-provincial diffusion of rural revitalization strategy,such as improving the level of information technology,increasing the experience of local officials in inter-provincial transfers,leveraging the role of public and social opinion,and vigorously developing regional economy.