PLUS和CMIP6气候模式的厦门土地利用情景模拟

Land Use Change in Xiamen City:Simulation and Scenario Analysis Based on PLUS Model and CMIP6 Model

为了精确模拟和预测城市土地利用变化,为城市规划和土地利用管理提供科学依据,基于PLUS模型、转移矩阵和情景分析等方法,探究2000--2020年厦门市土地利用时空变化特征;多情景模拟2030年土地利用变化,并引入CMIP6气候模式中3种不同SSP-RCP未来气候模式,预测厦门市2050年土地利用变化。研究结果表明:2000—2010年期间,厦门市的土地利用变化主要包括耕地向人造地表转化,水体和草地增加,林地和草地相互转化等,而2010—2020年期间,各种土地利用类型向人造地表转化的面积大幅增加,反映出城市化进程快速推进。2030年,3种土地利用发展情景下,厦门市土地利用变化明显,在自然发展情景下,人造地表增加22.75%,耕地降低14.82%;在城镇发展情景下,厦门市岛外的人造地表有明显增加,耕地被蚕食的情形需引起关注;在生态保护情景下,人造地表增幅为15.76%,耕地、林地和草地被极大地保护。预测结果显示,2050年,SSP126(低速发展)、SSP245(中速发展)和SSP585(高速发展)状况下的厦门经济用地(耕地和人造地表)占比分别由2020年的55.75%增长到58.61%、59.50%和60.38%。

In order to accurately simulate and predict the urban land use changes,and provide a scientific basis for urban planning and land use management,this study explores the spatiotemporal characteristics of land use change in Xiamen City,China from 2000 to 2020 using the PLUS model,transfer matrix,and scenario analysis.It then simulates land use change in 2030 under multiple scenarios,and introduces three different SSP-RCP future climate scenarios in the CMIP6 model to predict land use change in Xiamen City in 2050.The results show the following findings:from 2000 to 2010,the land use of Xiamen City was mainly characterized with conversion of farmland to artificial surfaces,expansion of water bodies and grassland,and reciprocal conversion of forest land and grassland;from 2010 to 2020,land of different types converted to artificial surfaces increased significantly,reflecting the rapid urbanization.Land use in Xiamen City in 2030 experiences significant changes under three land use development scenarios.Under the natural development scenario,artificial surfaces increases by 22.75%,while cultivated land decreases by 14.82%;under the urban development scenario,artificial surfaces beyond the island of the city increases significantly,warranting attention to the loss of cultivated land;under the ecological protection scenario,the increase in artificial surfaces is 15.76%,with arable land,forests,and grasslands being extensively protected.Under the three CMIP6 scenarios of SSP126(low development),SSP245(medium development),and SSP585(high development),the proportion of economic land(farmland and artificial surfaces)increases from 55.75%in 2020 to 58.61%,59.50%and 60.38%in 2050,respectively.