武汉市水资源脆弱性评价及障碍因子分析

Evaluation of Water Resource Vulnerability and Analysis of Obstacle Factors in Wuhan City

[目的]对武汉市水资源脆弱性及其障碍因子进行研究,进一步明确水资源系统特征及影响机制,从而为区域水资源管理及高效利用提供科学依据。[方法]结合武汉市水资源现状,基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型共选取12项指标构建水资源脆弱性评价体系,运用熵权法确定各项指标权重,并利用集对分析法对水资源脆弱性水平进行评价,在此基础上应用障碍度模型对武汉市水资源脆弱性障碍因子进行识别和分析。[结果]2013-2022年武汉市水资源脆弱性整体呈现逐渐降低的趋势,脆弱性等级由中等脆弱降低为微脆弱,其中压力子系统水资源脆弱性逐渐下降,状态子系统和响应子系统水资源脆弱性呈现波动下降趋势。万元GDP用水量、万元工业增加值用水量、河流水质达标率、水资源开发利用率和污水集中处理率是影响水资源脆弱性的主要障碍因子;从各子系统来看,其障碍度表现为:压力(P)>状态(S)>响应(R)。[结论]武汉市水资源虽然受到人类活动的影响较大,但其对经济社会的快速发展起到了重要的支撑作用,今后仍可通过不断优化水资源配置,加快产业结构升级及科技创新成果应用,提高污水处理水平,进一步降低区域水资源脆弱性,从而有效缓解水资源的供需矛盾。

[Objective]The vulnerability and obstacle factors of water resources in Wuhan City were explored to further clarify the characteristics and influencing mechanism of water resources system,therefore to provide a basis for regional water resources management and efficient utilization.[Methods]Combined with the current situation of water resources in Wuhan City,12 indicators were selected to construct a water resource vulnerability assessment system based on a pressure-state-response model.The entropy weight method was used to calculate the indicator weight,and the set pair analysis method was used to assess water resource vulnerability.On this basis,an obstacle degree model was applied to identify obstacles of water resource vulnerability in Wuhan City.[Results]The overall vulnerability of water resources in Wuhan City showed a gradually decreasing trend from 2013 to 2022,and the vulnerability level decreased from middle to micro vulnerability.From the perspective of each subsystem,the vulnerability of water resources in the pressure subsystem gradually decreased,whereas the state and response system vulnerability levels showed a fluctuating decrease.The main obstacles affecting the vulnerability of water resources are water consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP,water consumption per 10000 yuan of industrial added value,compliance rate of river water quality,development and utilization rate of water resources,and the centralized treatment rate of sewage.The order of obstacle degree was pressure>state>response.[Conclusion]Although water resources are greatly influenced by human activities,they can provide important support for economic and social development in Wuhan City.The vulnerability of regional water resources could be effectively reduced and the supply-demand contradiction of water resources alleviated by continuously optimizing the allocation of water resources,accelerating the upgrading of industrial structures,improving the level of sewage treatment,and applying technological innovation.