耦合PLUS-InVEST模型的海南热带雨林国家公园碳储量时空演变与预测

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park by Coupling PLUS-InVEST Models

[目的]研究海南热带雨林国家公园在不同情景下的土地利用和碳储量变化,为优化该区土地利用格局,制定保护政策提供科学依据。[方法]以2001,2011,2021海南热带雨林国家公园土地利用数据为基础,利用PLUS模型和InVEST模型相结合的方法,分析研究区在2001-2021年及2030年不同情景下的土地利用及碳储量变化。[结果]①2001-2021年海南热带雨林国家公园土地利用变化的特征为耕地、草地、水域面积逐年减少,林地、人造地表面积不断扩张,20 a间林地面积增加561.19 km^(2);到2030年,自然发展与耕地保护情景下土地利用变化模拟结果有些相似,而在生态保护情景下,土地利用变化与其他两种情景截然相反。②2001,2011,2021年海南热带雨林国家公园碳储量分别为8.72×10^(7)t,9.22×10^(7)t,9.13×10^(7)t,到2030年自然发展情景下碳储量为9.04×10^(7)t,耕地保护情景下碳储量为9.12×10^(7)t,生态保护情景下碳储量为9.13×10^(7)t,说明实施生态保护措施可以进一步提升海南热带雨林国家公园固碳能力。[结论]海南热带雨林国家公园碳储量变化与土地利用变化呈高度一致性,土地利用变化很大程度上决定了碳储总量及空间分布。

[Objective]The changes of land use and carbon storage under different scenarios were analyzed to provide the scientific bases were provided for optimizing of land use pattern and formulating protection policies in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park.[Methods]Based on the land use data of Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park in 2001,2011 and 2021,and the PLUS and InVEST models,the changes of land use and carbon storage in 2001-2021 and 2030 under different scenarios were analyzed and predicted,respectively.[Results]①From^(2)001 to 2021,the cultivated lands,grassland and water decreased continually,while the forest land and construction land gradually expanded in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park.And the forest land increased by 561.19 km^(2)in 20 years.The predicting results of land use changes under natural development scenario and farmland protection scenario in 2030 were similar but were much different with the results of ecological protection scenario.②In 2001,2011,and 2021,the carbon storage of Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park was 8.72×10^(7)t,9.22×10^(7)t,and 9.13×10^(7)t,respectively.In 2030,the carbon storage of Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park would be 9.04×10^(7)t under natural development scenario,9.12×10^(7)t under farmland protection scenario,9.13×10^(7)t under ecological protection scenario.These results indicating that the ecological protection measures could improve the ability of carbon storage in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park.[Conclusion]The change of carbon storage was highly consistent with the change of land use,and land use change could affect the pattern of carbon storage in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park.