碳中和目标下湖南省“三生”空间碳排放系数测度与战略模拟

Productional-Living-Ecological Space Carbon Emissions Analysis and Strategic Simulation in Hunan Province Under Target of Carbon Neutrality

[目的]在碳中和目标下,探究湖南省“三生”功能时空演变及其未来碳排放分布格局,为全国各省降碳减排提供决策参考。[方法]基于“三生”功能评价模型、“三生”空间碳排放系数测度模型,结合区域“三生”功能的各类数据和时空分异规律,探究湖南省“三生”功能与碳排放量时空关系及其未来碳排放分布格局规划战略。[结果]①2000-2020年湖南省县域“三生”空间时空分异特征明显,生态功能空间呈现“西强东弱”格局,时间上呈先降后升的趋势,而生产功能和生活功能总体变化不大。②2000-2020年湖南省县域碳排放在整体上差距不大,而在局部地区较为集聚,且差距在不断扩大。③2000-2020年湖南省“三生”功能与碳排放关联时空关联总体较强,不同空间类型影响程度存在差异性。④综合考虑2035年湖南省国土空间总体格局规划,2035年湖南省的“三生”空间碳排放系数分布可优化为6个组合类型。[结论]湖南省各县域“三生”空间碳排放系数分布格局受自然禀赋和经济发展影响较大,需在主体功能区战略的基础上,加强区域协同,细化县域“三生”空间管控,以提前实现碳中和目标。

[Objective]Under the goal of carbon neutrality,we explore the spatial and temporal evolution of the function of productional-living-ecological(P-L-E)in Hunan Province and its distribution pattern of carbon emissions in the future in order to provide strategy-making references for carbon emission reduction in all provinces of the country.[Methods]Based on the P-L-E function evaluation prediction and productional-living-ecological carbon emission distribution measurement models,combined with various data on the regional P-L-E function and the spatial-temporal differentiation law,this study explored the spatial-temporal relationship between the function of P-L-E and the carbon emissions in Hunan Province and the planning strategy of the distribution pattern of carbon emissions in the future.[Results]①From 2000 to 2020,the spatial and temporal differentiation of P-L-E in counties of Hunan Province was obvious,and the spatial pattern of the ecological function was strong and weak in the west and east,respectively which showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,while the production and life functions overall did not change much from 2000 to 2020.②The county-level carbon emissions in Hunan Province as a whole were not far apart but were concentrated in some areas,and the gap was widening.③The spatial-temporal correlation between the P-E-L function and carbon emissions was strong,and the influence degree of different spatial types was different.④Considering the general layout of land and space of Hunan Province in 2035,the coefficient of‘P-E-L’carbon emissions distribution could be optimised to six combination types in 2035.[Conclusion]Natural endowment and economic development exert a considerable influence on the distribution pattern of‘P-E-L’carbon emissions conefficient in counties of Hunan Province.Moreover,regional synergy should be strengthened on the basis of the strategy of main functional zones and refinement control of the county-level P-E-L to achieve the target of carbon neutrality ahead of time.