基于固定赔付策略的轴箱轴承担保模型分析

Analysis of Guarantee Model for Axle Box Bearing Based on Fixed Compensation Strategy

从经销商的角度出发,在固定赔付策略下研究轴箱轴承在担保期内的担保成本变化.利用图参数法对轴箱轴承的失效时间数据进行分析,拟合失效时间分布模型,初步判定失效时间数据服从指数分布,进一步采用Bartlett值验证失效时间数据服从指数分布的有效性.在不考虑货币价值变化和考虑货币价值变化两种情况下,构建担保模型分析单个轴承的担保成本、单个轴承应售价格、轴承担保总费用、单个轴承故障赔付金额等参数.本文提出的担保成本相关指标能够为轴承经销商提升担保服务水平和降低担保成本提供参考.

From the perspective of dealers,this study analyzes the variation of warranty costs for axle box bearings during the warranty period under a fixed compensation policy.The failure data of the axle box bearing is analyzed using the graph parameter method,and a failure time distribution model is fitted to preliminarily determine that the failure data follows an exponential distribution.Furthermore,the Bartlett value is used to verify the effectiveness of the failure data following an exponential distribution.Two scenarios are considered:one where changes in monetary value are not considered,and the other where they are considered.A warranty model is constructed to analyze parameters such as the warranty cost of a single bearing,the selling price of a single bearing,the compensation amount for a single bearing failure,and the total warranty cost of bearings.The proposed guarantee cost related indicators can provide reference for bearing dealers to improve their guarantee service level and reduce guarantee costs.