全国统一大市场建设中流通业的产业协同发展效应——基于时序变化和地区差异的双重分析

The Industrial Collaborative Development Effects of the Circulation Industries in the Construction of a Unified National Market in China——Double Analysis Based on Temporal Changes and Regional Differences

加强流通业产业协同发展效应、优化产业协同发展格局,是以现代流通体系建设助推全国统一大市场构建的重要手段。基于中国时间序列投入产出表和地区投入产出表,分别使用加权改进的高斯(Ghosh)逆矩阵和列昂惕夫(Leontief)逆矩阵,测度1981—2023年全国层面以及2000—2023年地区层面流通业(包括批发和零售业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业)双向产业协同发展效应,分析双向产业协同发展格局的时空差异。研究发现,在全国层面,流通业通过增加初始投入对相关行业产生的前向产业协同发展效应,明显强于其通过增加最终需求对相关行业产生的后向产业协同发展效应。其中,我国批发和零售业前向产业协同发展效应突出,特别是2010—2023年期间波动回升,后向产业协同发展效应波动特征减弱并稳定在中等水平;相比于批发和零售业,我国交通运输、仓储和邮政业的前向产业协同发展效应整体较弱,后向产业协同发展效应也较弱但与批发和零售业之间的差距有所缩小。从六大门类行业对我国流通业双向产业协同发展效应的贡献份额看,服务业始终保持主导地位且重要性不断上升,制造业地位也较高但重要性有所下降,顺应制造业结构转变趋势,先进资本或技术密集型制造业贡献份额明显增加,传统劳动密集型制造业贡献份额有所减小。在地区层面,流通业前向产业协同发展效应的地区差异明显缩小,后向产业协同发展效应的地区差异明显扩大。从六大门类行业对我国流通业前向产业协同发展效应的贡献份额看,在东部沿海经济区以制造业为主的格局正在向与其他经济区类似的以服务业为主的格局转变,在大西南和大西北经济区建筑业的贡献份额明显较高且有所上升。从六大门类行业对我国流通业后向产业协同发展效应的贡献份额看,整体而言,以服务业为主的格局仍在加强,制造业的重要辅助作用在逐渐减弱,但北部和东部沿海经济区制造业的贡献份额始终较高。为更好地加强流通业产业协同发展效应、推动全国统一大市场建设,应继续增加流通业初始投入,更大程度地发挥流通业前向产业协同发展效应;顺应流通业最终需求变化趋势,适当加强流通业后向产业协同发展效应;缩小流通业后向产业协同发展效应的地区差异,持续改善地区分割问题。

Strengthening the industrial collaborative development effects of the circulation industries and optimizing the structure of the corresponding industries are important methods to promote the construction of a unified national market through the construction of modern circulation system in China.Based on the Chinese time series input-output table and the regional input-output table,the author uses the weighted improved Ghosh inverse matrix and Leontief inverse matrix to measure the forward and backward industrial collaborative development effects of the circulation industries(such as wholesale&retail,transportation,warehousing,and postal industries)at the national level from 1981 to 2023 and at the regional level from 2000 to 2023;and then the author analyzes the temporal and spatial difference characteristics of the two-way industrial collaborative development effects.It is found that,from a national perspective,the forward industrial collaborative development effects of the circulation industries on related industries by increasing initial investment are significantly stronger than the backward industrial collaborative development effects by increasing their final demands.Among them,the forward industrial collaborative development effect of the wholesale and retail industry is the most significant,especially it has increased significantly during the period of 2010-2023,and the the fluctuation characteristics of backward industrial collaborative development effect of wholesale and retail industry has slowed down and stabilized at a medium level;comparing to the wholesale and retail industry,both the forward and backward industrial collaborative development effect of the transportation,warehousing and postal industry is weaker than that of the wholesale and retail industry,and the gaps between the backward industrial collaborative development effects of these circulation industries and the wholesale and retail industry are narrowing.From the perspective of industrial contribution to the forward and backward industrial collaborative development effect of the six industries,the service industry is always playing the leading role,and its importance is continuously rising;the position of the manufacturing industry is also high,but with the decreasing importance;and with the trend of structural changes in the manufacturing industries,the contribution of manufacturing industries with advanced capital or technology-intensive manufacturing are significantly increasing,while the contribution of labor-intensive manufacturing industries are decreasing.From the regional perspective,the regional differences of the circulation industries’forward industrial collaborative development effects have decreased significantly,and the regional differences of the circulation industries’backward industrial collaborative development effects have expanded significantly.From the perspective of the contribution of the six industries to the forward industrial collaborative development effects of China’scirculation industries,in the eastern costal economic regions,the pattern giving priority to manufacturing industry is changing to giving priority to service industry,which is similar to that in other economic regions;in the southwest and northwest economic regions,the contribution of the construction industry is much higher and is still rising now.From the perspective of the contribution of the six industries to the backward industrial collaborative development effect of China’s circulation industries,as a whole,the pattern giving priority to service industry has been strengthened,the supporting role of manufacturing industry is weakening,while in the north and eastern costal economic regions,the contribution of the manufacturing industry is still higher.To better strengthen the industrial collaborative development effect of the circulation industries and promote the construction of a unified national market,we should,first,continuously increase the initial investment in the circulation industries and give full play to the role of the forward industrial collaborative development effect of the circulation industries;second,we should moderately strengthen the backward industrial collaborative development effect of the circulation industries according to the trend of the changing final demand of the circulation industries;and third,we should narrow the regional difference of the backward industrial collaborative development effect of the circulation industries and sustainably improve the situation of regional segmentation.