因地制宜发展新质生产力的现实依据与实施路径--来自西部地区九大城市群的经验证据

Practical basis and implementation path of fostering new quality productive forces in line with local conditions:Empirical evidence from nine urban agglomerations in western China

党的二十届三中全会通过决定--《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革推进中国式现代化的决定》,强调要健全因地制宜发展新质生产力体制机制。作为新形势下中国经济实现高质量发展的重大部署和重要抓手,发展新质生产力绝不能出现各地区一哄而上、产业雷同和恶性竞争的局面,相反,需要结合地方自然资源禀赋、地理生态环境、人口教育水平、数字基础设施、创新研发能力等因素探寻比较优势和合适路径。西部地区作为国家安全与长远发展的重要基础,在中国式现代化进程中发展相对滞后,影响着中国经济高质量发展的总体水平。成渝、呼包鄂榆、北部湾、关中、滇中、兰西、宁夏沿黄、黔中和天山北坡等九大城市群是我国西部地区发展的重要动力源,也是西部地区抢抓新质生产力发展机遇的高地。文章基于2012—2022年中国西部地区城市面板数据,从科技生产力、绿色生产力和数字生产力三个维度构建综合评价指标体系,采用熵值法测算西部地区九大城市群新质生产力发展水平及各维度指数得分,并运用Dagum基尼系数法、核密度估计法、马尔科夫转移概率矩阵、σ收敛模型和β收敛模型考察了西部地区城市群新质生产力发展水平的时空特征、差异来源、演进规律及收敛机制。研究发现,整体而言西部地区城市群新质生产力发展水平呈现逐年增长态势,但总体水平偏低且表现出明显的梯度差异;并且存在着科技生产力水平最高、数字生产力水平次之、绿色生产力水平居末位的结构分解特征。在相对差异方面,西部城市群新质生产力发展水平的总体差异较为显著,其中超变密度和区域间差异是城市群区域差异的主要来源。在绝对差异方面,西部城市群的新质生产力发展水平的空间差异具有进一步扩大的趋势,并且存在“俱乐部趋同”现象和一定程度的“马太效应”。在收敛特征方面,短期来看西部地区的新质生产力水平差距尚未缩小,但长期来看存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛趋势,即西部城市群新质生产力水平将在长期收敛到稳态水平。因此,西部地区在培育和发展新质生产力的进程中,既要因地制宜挖掘特色优势,又要统筹合作推进协调发展。

The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(CPC)adopted the“Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernization”at its third plenary session,and stressed to establish sound systems and mechanisms to foster new quality productive forces in line with local conditions.As an important plan and key point for China’s economic development to achieve high-quality development under the new situation,the development of new quality productive forces must not lead to the situation of a headlong rush into projects,similar industrial structures and cut-throat competition.On the contrary,it is necessary to explore comparative advantages and appropriate paths by combining various factors such as natural resource endowment,geographical ecological environment,population education level,digital infrastructure,and innovation and R&D capabilities.As an important constraint on national security and long-term development,the development of the western region is relatively lagging behind in the process of Chinese modernization,which affects the overall level of high-quality development of China’s economy.The nine western urban agglomerations are the important power source of the development of the western region of China,and also the highland for the western region to seize the development opportunity of new quality productive forces.Based on the panel data of cities in western China from 2012 to 2022,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system from the three dimensions of scientific and technological productivity,green productivity and digital productivity,and the entropy method is used to measure the development level of new quality productive forces and the index scores of each dimension in the nine urban agglomerations in western China.The Dagum Gini coefficient method,kernel density estimation method,Markov transition probability matrix,σconvergence model andβconvergence model are used to investigate the spatial-temporal characteristics,source of differences,evolution rules and convergence mechanisms of the development level of new quality productive forces in urban agglomerations in western China.The study finds that,on the whole,the development level of new quality productive forces in urban agglomerations in the western region shows an increasing trend year by year,but the overall level is low and shows obvious gradient difference.And there is a structural decomposition feature that the level of scientific and technological productivity is the highest,the level of digital productivity is the second,and the level of green productivity is the last.In terms of relative differences,the overall differences in the development level of new quality productive forces in western urban agglomerations are relatively significant,among which the hypervariable density and inter-regional differences are the main sources of regional differences in urban agglomerations.In terms of absolute difference,the spatial difference of the development level of new quality productive forces in western urban agglomeration has a trend of further expansion,and there is a phenomenon of“club convergence”and a certain degree of“Matthew effect”.In terms of convergence characteristics,in the short term,the gap of the new quality productive forces level in the western region has not narrowed,but in the long term,there are absolute and conditionalβconvergence trends,that is,the new quality productive forces level in the western urban agglomeration will converge to the steady state level in the long term.Therefore,in the process of cultivating and developing new quality productive forces,the western region should not only tap its characteristics and advantages according to local conditions,but also promote coordinated development through overall planning and cooperation.