新型城镇化对农村居民消费升级的影响研究——基于长江经济带省级面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of New-Type Urbanization on Consumption Upgrading among Rural Residents--Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

激发农村居民消费潜力、促进农村居民消费升级对推动国内国际双循环、经济高质量发展具有重要战略意义。文章通过构建新型城镇化影响农村居民消费升级的理论框架,基于长江经济带11个省(市)2008—2022年的面板数据,运用固定效应、机制效应等模型,实证分析了新型城镇化对农村居民消费升级的影响及作用机制。研究发现:(1)新型城镇化显著促进农村居民消费升级,此结论经多重检验后依然成立;(2)机制分析表明,提高农村居民收入和农业机械化水平是新型城镇化促进农村居民消费升级的重要路径;(3)异质性分析表明,长江经济带新型城镇化对农村居民消费升级的促进作用呈下、中、上游阶梯递减的差异格局。鉴于此,文章建议持续推进新型城镇化与农村居民消费的可持续发展,完善农村居民收入增长机制,加大农村科技投入力度,统筹区域发展,释放消费潜能。

Unlocking the rural residents’consumption potential and promoting their consumption upgrading are of strategic significance for advancing both domestic and international dual circulation and achieving high-quality economic development.Based on panel data from 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2022,this study constructs a theoretical framework to analyze the impact and mechanisms of new-type urbanization on rural residents’consumption upgrading,using fixed-effect models and mechanism-effect models.The findings indicate that:(1)New-type urbanization significantly promotes the upgrading of rural residents’consumption,a conclusion that holds true after multiple robustness checks;(2)The mechanism analysis shows that increasing rural residents’income and improving agricultural mechanization are important pathways through which new-type urbanization drives rural consumption upgrading;(3)Heterogeneity analysis reveals a gradient of decreasing effects of new-type urbanization across the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Based on these findings,it is recommended to continue promoting the sustainable development of new-type urbanization and rural consumption,improve mechanisms for rural income growth,increase investment in rural science and technology,and coordinate regional development to unlock consumption potential.