一孩生育经历与生育意愿的调整

Experience of First-Child Birth and Adjustment of Fertility Intentions

理解生育意愿的影响因素对于优化生育政策、促进人口长期均衡发展具有重要意义。本文认为生育类似“经验性商品”,生育经历会显著影响个体的生育意愿。使用中国健康与营养调查数据和事件分析方法,本文从实证层面考察了一孩生育经历对女性生育意愿的影响。结果显示:一孩生育经历会显著提高女性的意愿生育数量,在生育过一孩后,女性意愿生育数量显著提高0.432,相当于使已婚未育女性意愿生育数量显著增加了30%;一孩生育经历对高收入水平、隔代同住、一胎性别为女孩以及农村女性的意愿生育数量的促进作用更强。本文进一步分析了一孩生育对家庭社会经济状况的影响,发现生育一孩后,虽然家庭在儿童照料方面投入增加,家庭收入和消费水平却没有受到统计上显著的影响,这表明一孩生育对家庭造成的短期经济成本较为有限。这意味着,一孩生育的实际经济成本可能低于生育前的预期成本,从而导致女性意愿生育数量向上调整。本文的研究发现表明,一孩生育可以间接撬动二孩生育,生育支持政策不仅需要关注二孩、三孩生育,也需要鼓励和引导一孩生育。

Understanding the factors influencing fertility intentions is crucial for optimizing fertility policies and promoting long-term balanced population growth.This paper suggests that childbirth is akin to an experience good,meaning the experience of childbirth significantly influences an individual's fertility intentions.Using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey and event analysis methods,this paper empirically investigates how the experience of having a first child impacts women's fertility intentions.The results indicate that the experience of having a first child increases the number of children women intend to have.On average,after having their first child,women's intended number of children increases by 0.432,equating to a 30%rise for married women without children.The experience of having a first child has a more pronounced effect on increasing the intended number of children among women with high-income levels,those living with parents,those whose first child is a girl,and rural women.The paper further examines the impact of having a first child on the family's socioeconomic status and finds that although family investment in childcare increases,family income and consumption levels are not significantly affected statistically.The results suggest that the short-term economic cost of having a first child is relatively limited,implying that the actual economic cost of having a first child may be lower than anticipated before childbirth,leading women to increase their intended number of children.The findings of this paper indicate that having a first child can indirectly encourage having a second child.Therefore,fertility support policies should not only focus on second and third childbirths but also on encouraging and guiding first childbirths.