1990年-2035年中国骨关节炎患病、疾病负担现状及趋势预测

Study on the prevalence and burden of osteoarthritis and its trend prediction in China from 1990 to 2035

目的对全球和中国居民骨关节炎的疾病负担现状及趋势进行描述分析,多角度了解中国骨关节炎的分布情况,为制定策略和措施提供数据信息。方法基于GBD 2019数据库,获取中国与全球骨关节炎患病和疾病负担相关数据。随时间的变化趋势用平均年度变化百分比来反映。不同性别骨关节炎的患病和疾病负担的趋势预测通过贝叶斯-年龄-时期-队列模型来进行。结果从1990年到2019年,中国与全球骨关节炎的标化患病率和伤残调整寿命年(disability adjusted of life years,DALY)均呈增长趋势,并且中国增长速率更快,平均年度变化百分比分别为0.24%(95%CI:0.18~0.30)和0.28%(95%CI:0.22~0.34)。中国在这期间的增长主要发生在2000年-2005年。年龄在35岁之后,中国骨关节炎患病率和DALY率呈快速上升趋势,65岁后有所平缓。中国女性骨关节炎的标化患病率和DALY率均高于男性,这种差异主要源于40岁以上人群。预计到2035年,中国女性骨关节炎患病情况将呈下降趋势,而男性呈上升趋势。结论中国骨关节炎的负担较全球严重,并且年龄和性别差异明显。当前女性负担较高,但未来男性会呈明显上升趋势,应针对不同人群制定更加精准的防控策略。

Objective To describe the trend of osteoarthritis(OA)burden in global and Chinese residents,to understand the distribution of OA in China from multiple angles,and to provide data information for informing the development of strategies and measures.Methods Information on the prevalence and burden of OA in China and the world was obtained based on GBD 2019 database.Time trend was reflected by average annual percentage change(AAPC).The prevalence and burden in different sex were predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis model.Results From 1990 to 2019,the standardized prevalence and DALY rates of OA in China and the world showed an increasing trend,and the increase rate was faster in China,with AAPC of 0.24%(95%CI:0.18-0.30)and 0.28%(95%CI:0.22-0.34),respectively.Most of China’s growth during this period occurred from 2000 to 2005.After the age of 35,the prevalence and DALY rate of OA in China increased rapidly,and they were stable after the age of 65.The standardized prevalence and DALY rate of OA in Chinese women were higher than those in men,and this difference mainly stems from the population over 40 years old.From 2020 to 2035,the prevalence and DALY rate of OA in Chinese women might decline,while it might increase in men.Conclusion The burden of OA in China is more serious than that in the world,and the age and gender differences are obvious.At present,the burden from women is higher.In the future,men will show a significant upward trend.More accurate measures should be informed for different groups.