中美关键矿产竞争及其影响

Critical Minerals Competition between China and the United States and Its Impacts

关键矿产因其在国家安全领域和经济领域的重要作用而日益成为国际关系的新议题。美国不断加大对华关键矿产之争。近年来,中美两国围绕关键矿产,在定义、开采权、制裁等领域针锋相对。为获得竞争相对优势,中美两国在国内加快建设关键矿产完整供应链,在国际积极拓展伙伴合作。但中美两国关键矿产政策能否取得成功,不仅取决于自然分布、技术、市场和政策等诸多要素,同时意识形态和国家战略也发挥着重要作用。通过分析发现,当前中国在关键矿产的自然分布和市场领域略占上风,在技术和政策方面,中美两国各有优势。总体而言,受制于关键矿产的地理、功能、经济和政治属性,美国即便不断推动对华关键矿产“去风险”,但中美两国在关键矿产矿源、半成品、制成品的全供应链中也都无法实现真正的脱钩。美国对华关键矿产之争已经对中美两国、第三方以及全球都产生了重大的消极影响。

Critical minerals have increasingly become a new issue in international relations due to their important role in the field of national security and economy.The U.S.has been intensifying its competition over critical minerals with China in terms of definition,mining rights,and sanctions in recent years.In order to gain a relative advantage in the competition,both countries have been accelerating the construction of a complete supply chain for critical minerals at home and actively expanding partnerships abroad.However,the success of critical mineral policies of China and the United States depends not only on factors such as natural distribution,technology,consumption market and policy,but also on ideology and national strategy.China has a slight advantage in the natural distribution of critical minerals and the consumption market,while both China and the United States have their respective advantages in terms of technology and policy.Overall,subject to the geographic,functional,economic and political attributes of critical minerals,the U.S.cannot achieve fundamental decoupling in the full supply chain of critical minerals from mineral sources,semi-finished products,to finished products between China and the US.The U.S.-China critical minerals competition has had a significant negative impact on China and the U.S.,third parties,and the rest of world.