“孟母三迁”:子女教育发展阶段下家庭教育迁移的现代证据

Mencius’Mother Moved Three Times:Modern Evidence of Family Education-induced Migration across Different Child Development Stages

目前学界关于中国教育迁移现象的研究相对欠缺。利用中国家庭追踪调查2018年和2020年数据,通过离散时间补对数-对数生存模型和KHB中介效应法探究子女教育发展阶段对家庭教育迁移概率的影响机制及城乡差异,结果表明:当前中国核心家庭为子女教育而举家迁移的比例较低,尚未成为普遍现象。相较于小学择校,初中、高中择校的概率依次降低,教育迁移决策更多发生于子女教育发展早期阶段。该现象在城乡间一致,但乡村地区教育迁移的进度比城镇地区更为提前。此外,随着子女进入更高的教育发展阶段,寄宿制成为一种替代机制,有效降低了家庭整体的教育迁移需求。政府应统筹规划,推动城乡教育资源均衡发展,减少家庭为教育进行迁移的压力,改善家庭福祉。

Current research on educational migration in China is relatively scarce.Using data from the 2018 and 2020 waves of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this study explores the impact mechanisms of children’s educational development stages on the likelihood of family educational migration and the urbanrural differences,employing a discrete-time complementary log-log survival model and the KHB mediation effect method.The results show that,at present,the proportion of nuclear families in China relocating for their children’s education remains low and has not become a widespread phenomenon.Compared to school selection at the primary level,the likelihood of migration decreases progressively at the middle and high school levels,with educational migration decisions occurring more frequently during the early stages of a child’s educational development.This trend is consistent across both urban and rural areas,but rural regions exhibit an earlier pace of educational migration.Furthermore,as children advance to higher educational stages,boarding schools increasingly serve as a substitute mechanism,effectively reducing the need for full-family educational migration.The government should implement integrated planning to promote the balanced development of urban and rural educational resources,thereby reducing the pressure on families to relocate for education and improving overall family well-being.