肺结核发病的时空分布特征和气象因素分析

Spatial and temporal epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis and meteorological factor analysis

通过对2015—2019年全国肺结核发病率数据(不含香港地区、澳门地区和台湾地区)可视化,探究全国肺结核发病的时空分布特征;通过空间自相关分析和拉格朗日乘数(LM)检验,选取面板数据空间杜宾模型探究有关气象因素对肺结核发病的影响。研究结果表明,每年的1月和3月是全国肺结核的高发期,且全国肺结核发病率存在空间聚集性,高发区域是新疆、西藏和青海等西北部地区;气温和湿度与当地肺结核发病是负相关关系,与周边地区的肺结核发病是正相关关系。

By visualizing the national tuberculosis incidence data(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2015 to 2019,the temporal and spatial prevalence characteristics of tuberculosis incidence in China were explored.The influence of relevant meteorological factors on the incidence of tuberculosis was investigated through spatial autocorrelation analysis and Lagrange multiplier(LM)test and using the spatial Durbin model of panel data.The results showed that January and March of each year were the high incidence periods of tuberculosis in China.The incidence of tuberculosis in China was spatially clustered,and the high incidence areas were the northwestern regions such as Xinjiang,Xizang,Qinghai.Temperature and humidity were negatively correlated with the incidence of tuberculosis in the local areas,and positively correlated with the incidence of tuberculosis in the surrounding areas.