中国区域建筑业碳排放时空特征及减排策略研究

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Carbon Emissions and Emission Reduction Strategies in China’s Regional Construction Industry

建筑业碳排放是全国碳排放增长的主要贡献之一。基于能源消费碳排放核算方法测算2005-2019年全国和四大区域(东部、西部、中部和东北)的建筑业碳排放,分析区域建筑业碳排放时空变化特征,运用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)方法研究直接碳排放强度、能源强度、经济活动强度、施工面积规模和间接碳排放强度等5个主要因素对建筑业碳排放的影响,并提出区域建筑业的差异化减排策略。研究表明:①全国建筑业碳排放总体呈现先增后降再增的时间变化特征,并呈现“东部>中部>西部>东北”的区域分布特征;②施工面积规模和经济活动强度是促进建筑业碳排放增加的主要因素,间接碳排放强度是促进建筑业碳排放减少的主要因素;③东部地区应控制建设规模以减少新建建筑面积规模,中部和东北地区应积极推动建筑业的节能降碳发展,西部地区应加强绿色转型以降低建筑业经济活动的排放强度。这些结果丰富了建筑业碳排放驱动因素和碳减排策略的相关研究,为实现全国和区域建筑业经济发展和碳排放的脱钩提供了针对性政策建议。

Carbon emissions from the construction industry are one of the major contributors to the growth of national carbon emissions.The carbon emission calculation approach based on energy consumption is adopted to measure the carbon emissions of the construction industry in China and its four major regions(including the East,the West,the Central and the Northeast)from 2005 to 2019,and analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the carbon emissions respectively.The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method is applied to investigate the effects of five drivers,including direct carbon intensity,indirect carbon intensity,energy intensity,labor efficiency,and construction area scale,on carbon emissions in the construction industry,and to propose differentiated emission reduction strategies for the regional construction industry.The study shows:1)The total carbon emissions of the national construction industry show a trend of first growth,then decline,and then growth again,and the total carbon emissions of each region show the distribution characteristics of“East>Central>West>Northeast”.2)The construction area and labor efficiency are the main factors promoting the increase of carbon emissions,while the indirect carbon intensity is the key factor promoting the decrease of carbon emissions.3)The eastern region should control the scale of construction to reduce the scale of new construction area,the central and northeastern regions should actively promote the green development of the construction industry,and the western region should strengthen the green transformation to reduce the emission intensity of construction economic activities.These findings enrich research on the drivers of carbon emissions and mitigation strategies in the construction industry,and provide targeted policy recommendations for decoupling construction economic growth and carbon emissions at the national and regional levels.