绿色金融发展的前因组态及其低碳效应:新结构经济学的视角

The Antecedent Configuration of Green Finance Development and Its Low-carbon Effect:New Structural Economic Perspective

绿色金融是推动“双碳”目标实现的重要路径,如何通过绿色金融推动城市低碳发展是学术和实践领域有待回答的重要问题。基于新结构经济学比较优势理论,采用NCA、QCA和PSM方法对我国百强城市展开分析,从中宏观角度系统探究多个前因条件的联动匹配效应,以及不同路径下实现的高水平绿色金融是否均能促进城市低碳发展。结果表明:(1)单个前因条件并不构成高水平绿色金融发展的必要条件和充分条件,但是技术水平发挥着较普适的作用;(2)要素禀赋结构、有效市场、有为政府联动匹配,形成3种城市高水平绿色金融发展的组态形式,分别是市场引导下要素禀赋结构中技术核心驱动型,市场引导下要素禀赋结构内生驱动型和政府引导下要素禀赋结构内生驱动型,呈现出“殊途同归”的特点;(3)当经济水平、技术水平、有效市场等前因条件缺失时,产生4种城市非高水平绿色金融发展的组态形式;(4)3种组态形式产生的高水平绿色金融对城市低碳发展的影响呈现出“殊途不同效”的特点,高水平绿色金融能够贡献于城市低碳发展的关键在于有为政府的引导。

In response to the challenge of climate change,the international community has reached consensus on developing low-carbon economy.President Xi Jinping made the Chinese commitment of"we aim to have CO2emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060"at the General Debate of the 75th Session of The United Nations General Assembly on 22 September 2020.Green finance plays an important role in promoting the realization of dual-carbon strategic goal.How to achieve high-level green finance development and promote low-carbon urban development is an important issue to be solved in both academic and practical fields.Based on the comparative advantage theory of new structural economics,we propose that the potential comparative advantage of green finance is determined by endowment structure,and becomes the real comparative advantage under the guidance of efficient market and competent government.We use NCA,QCA and PSM methods to analyze the top 100 cities in China,explore the synergistic effect of endowment structure,efficient market,and competent government on high-level green finance development,and try to figure out whether high-level green finance realized under different paths can equally promote the low-carbon urban development.In this research,we firstly employ the NCA method to test whether each antecedent constitutes a necessary condition for promoting urban green finance development.Secondly,the fsQCA method is hired to explore the synergistic influence of antecedents including endowment structure,effective market,and competent government on urban green finance development.Notably,endowment structure contains four factors,they are natural endowment,economic level,technical level,and open level.Finally,we use the PSM method to further investigate whether each form of high-level green finance,that is,developed under different paths,can promote urban low-carbon development.The results show that(1)A single antecedent condition does not constitute a necessary and sufficient condition for the development of high-level green finance,yet the technical level plays an important role in influencing high-level green finance.(2)Endowment structure,efficient market,and competent government are synergistically matched to form three configurations for urban high-level green financial development,presenting the feature of"same destination by different paths".The three configurations are"high-level green financial driven by technology in endowment structure under market guidance","high-level green financial driven by endowment structure under market guidance",and"high-level green financial driven by endowment structure under government guidance".(3)When the antecedents such as economic level,technical level and efficient market are absent,four types of configuration for non-high-level urban green financial development are generated.(4)The high-level green finance formed under three paths have differentiated impacts on urban low-carbon development,showing the feature of"different paths lead to different effects".The reason is that competent government play an essential role in guiding green finance to effectively promote low-carbon urban development.This paper applies the new structural economics model to the study of the antecedents and consequences of urban green finance development.On the basis of the configurational perspective,the antecedents of green finance are systematically integrated,the synergistic matching effect among antecedents factors is discussed,the distinct low-carbon effects of three configurations of high-level green finance are identified.Overall,we enrich the comparative advantage theory of new structural economics by underlying the deep logic of the development of urban green finance development as well as its low-carbon outcomes.