碳边境调节机制对中国对外贸易的影响研究

Impacts of Carbon Border Regulation Mechanism on Foreign Trade in China

碳边境调节机制(CBAM)叠加国内“双碳”目标,增加了中国对外贸易低碳转型的复杂性。研究立足CBAM的动态演变机制,结合GTAP模型,深入分析短、中、长期情境下CBAM对中国各产业部门和主要贸易伙伴国的影响。研究结果显示,欧盟推出CBAM,短期主要对中国五大高能耗产业的进出口规模产生负向影响,中、欧社会福利均会受到较大程度的损失,且欧盟社会福利损失超过中国;中期负向影响会进一步在中国各个产业部门和其他国家和地区间扩大,欧盟则会以更高的社会福利损失为代价,获得更大的贸易顺差;长期来看,中国的进出口规模虽有收缩,但依然在对外贸易中享有比较优势,而欧盟的对外贸易优势则会更加显著。为应对CBAM影响,我国应在短期内针对五大高能耗产业加大清洁技术攻关,中期全面优化绿色产业布局、深化国际合作,长期推动绿色产业链区域化、全球化发展。

The intricate interplay between the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)and China’s domestic“dual carbon”targets has heightened the challenges associated with transitioning to low-carbon foreign trade within China.Drawing upon the dynamic evolution principles of CBAM and integrating the GTAP model,this paper analyzes the impacts of CBAM on China’s industrial sectors and its principal trading partners in the short,medium,and long-term terms.Our findings reveal that the EU’s CBAM,in the short term,adversely affects the import and export volumes of China’s five primary energy-intensive sectors,concurrently inflicting substantial social welfare losses on both China and Europe,with the EU experiencing a greater degree of detriment.Moving into the medium term,these negative impacts broaden their scope,encompassing a wider array of China’s industrial sectors and extending to other countries and regions,resulting in a larger EU trade surplus albeit at the expense of higher social welfare costs.In the long term,while China’s import and export scale may shrink,it maintains its competitive edge in foreign trade.Conversely,the EU’s foreign trade advantage intensifies.To mitigate the implications of CBAM,China must prioritize clean technology research for its five key energy-intensive sectors in the short term,followed by a comprehensive optimization of green industry layouts and deepening international collaborations in the medium term.Ultimately,fostering the regionalization and globalization of the green industrial chain emerges as a strategic imperative for China in the long term.