基于上市公司风险披露数据的航空业风险源关联性与演化性分析

Analysis of correlation and evolutionary of risksourcess in aviation industry based on risk disclosure data of listed companies

根据潜在狄利克雷分配(latent Dirichlet allocation, LDA)得到的2005—2022年255家航空业上市公司的风险识别结果,分析了客运航空公司、机场服务公司和空运物流公司披露的风险源。研究结果显示:在风险关联方面,不同子行业内部的风险源存在一定的关联,这种关联与行业的业务属性密切相关,客运航空业与机场服务业之间的风险关联相对较高,表明二者存在共性风险或者相似的风险特征,词共现分析说明成本风险和经营风险与其他风险类型关联度最高;在风险演化方面,包括声誉风险在内的5类风险有所增加,而股票波动风险等其他3类风险则呈下降趋势,由指数平滑法预测出客运航空业和空运物流业未来的总风险都呈上升趋势,客运航空业的上升最快,机场服务业的则呈下降趋势。

This study analyzes the risk sources disclosed by passenger airlines,airport service companies and air logistics companies based on the risk identification results of 255 listed companies in the aviation industry from 2005 to 2022 obtained by LDA method.The results of the study show that:in terms of risk correlation,there is a certain inner correlation between the risk sources of different sub-industries,and this correlation is closely related to the business attributes of the industry,and the risk correlation between the passenger airline industry and the air transportation logistics industry is higher,which suggests that there is a common risk or a similar risk characteristic between,and the results obtained by word covariance indicate that cost risk and operational risk have the highest degree of correlation with the other types of risk;and in terms of risk evolution.The five types of risks,including reputation risk,have increased,while the other three types of risks,such as stock volatility risk,have shown a decreasing trend,and the exponential smoothing method predicts that the total risk size of the passenger aviation industry and the air logistics industry in the future are both showing an increasing trend,and the airport service industry has shown a decreasing trend while the passenger aviation industry has the fastest rising trend.