碳中和目标下中国光伏发电潜力、空间格局与综合效益分析

Capacity,spatial patterns and benefits assessment of photovoltaic power under carbon neutrality goal in China

利用时空高分辨的综合数字地理信息,预测了碳中和目标下2021-2060年光伏发电的时空分布特征,分析了温度、遮阳、面板倾斜度对光伏发电量的影响,并通过空间自相关方法研究了光伏产业发展的格局,量化光伏发电的综合效益,结果表明:(1)优化到电厂级别后,2060年中国光伏年发电潜力可达到9 PW·h。其中,新疆和内蒙古发电潜力较高,有望成为中国重要的光伏发电基地。(2)光伏面板的间距、倾斜角度、外物遮挡和温度均会对光伏面板的发电效率产生影响,在规划建设光伏电厂时要充分考虑实际地质地貌和气象要素,合理布局光伏面板,定期做好清洁维护工作,以保持光伏电板良好的发电性能。(3)2021-2060年各省份集中式光伏发电的分布呈现一定的空间关联特征。西北地区是未来集中式光伏产业的核心区域,可能表现出一定的集聚效应,这种效应能有效提高西北地区光伏企业的生产效率和竞争能力,增强光伏企业的创新水平,并带动西北地区经济的协同增长。(4)中国在2060年通过光伏发电每年可节约1200 Mt标准煤,二氧化碳、大气颗粒物、二氧化硫和氮氧化物减排量分别约为7076、0.18、0.66和0.95 Mt。其中,西北地区和内蒙古是光伏发电综合效益最高的区域,加速该地区光伏发电的发展、保证电力输送设施和储能设施的建设,有助于加速中国的碳减排进程并尽早实现碳中和目标。

This paper predicts the spatiotemporal distribution of photovoltaic(PV)power generation during 2021-2060 under the target of carbon neutrality based on a high-resolution comprehensive digital geographic information.This paper analyses the impacts of temperature,shading and panel inclination on PV power generation,investigates the spatial pattern of PV industry by performing an autocorrelation analysis,and evaluates the integrated benefits of PV power.The main conclusions can be drawn as follows.1)The maximal annual PV power generation in China is projected to reach 9 PW-h·a"by 2060,where Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have the highest potential for PV power generation and are expected to be the most important regions for PV generation in China.2)The spacing,inclination,shading and temperature of panels have significant impacts on the efficiency of PV power generation.Therefore,it is necessary to consider the actual geological and meteorological factors when making plans of building PV power plants.Improving the performance of PV power generation requires to optimize the layout of PV panels,perform sufficient cleaning,and conduct maintenance work regularly.3)The spatial correlation in distribution of PV power generation is significant at province level from 2021 to 2060.Northwest China will be the hot-spot area of PV power generation with a potential effect of agglomeration,which could improve the efficiency and competitiveness of PV enterprises,enhance the innovation ability,and drive the coordinated economic growth.4)Deploying PV power in China can save coal consumption by 1200 Mt·a',which is expected to effectively reduce emissions of carbon dioxide,particulate matters,sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides by 7076,0.18,0.66 and 0.95 Mt·a',respectively in 2060.The highest environmental benefits of PV power generation are identified in Northwest China and Inner Mongolia.As a conclusion,accelerating the deployment of PV power and securing construction of electricity transmission and energy storage facilities will speed up China's carbon emissions reduction to achieve the carbon neutrality goal as early as possible.These results provide a scientific basis for the development strategies of PV power in China.