澳门地区经济韧性演化、空间溢出与影响因素——基于粤港澳大湾区空间关联网络视角的研究

Study on the Evolution,Spatial Spillovers,and Influencing Factors of Macao region's Economic Resilience:A Perspective from the Spatial Correlation Network in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

经济韧性是在复杂严峻的外部环境下实现经济高质量发展的重要基础。澳门地区回归祖国25年来,多次顶住外部超预期冲击,社会和经济发展初显韧性,但仍受单一产业结构转型压力的掣肘。运用指标建构、引力模型、社会网络分析法等定量研究方法,对澳门地区与粤港澳大湾区其他城市的经济韧性互动关系进行经验分析,发现:作为微型开放经济体,澳门地区受外部不确定性冲击影响显著,其经济韧性呈现波动发展态势;在粤港澳大湾区城市间经济韧性溢出作用下,澳门地区的韧性网络中心地位有所提升但低于大湾区其他城市;粤港澳大湾区的产品贸易、人口流动会对澳门地区经济韧性产生显著正向溢出效应,但资金流对提升澳门地区经济韧性无显著作用。立足粤港澳大湾区空间关联网络视角,澳门地区亟须积极发挥“一国两制”的独特制度优势,把握以合作创新为特征的新质生产力发展主动权,推动经济适度多元发展,在增长中化解和防范外部风险,复苏、巩固、提升城市经济韧性,以更好地融入国家发展大局,为高质量推动中国式现代化贡献澳门地区力量。

Economic resilience is a crucial foundation for achieving high-quality economic development in a complex and challenging external environment.Since its return to China 25 years ago,Macao region has withstood multiple external shocks,demonstrating initial signs of resilience in its social and economic development,though it still faces pressure due to a singular industrial structure.This paper employs quantitative research methods such as index construction,the gravity model,and social network analysis to conduct an empirical analysis of Macao region's economic resilience in the context of its involvement in the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.The study finds that as a small open economy,Macao region is significantly impacted by external uncertainty shocks,and its economic resilience exhibits a pattern of fluctuating development.Under the influence of economic resilience spillovers among cities in the Greater Bay Area,Macao region's centrality in the resilience network has increased but remains lower than that of other cities.Product trade and population flow within the Greater Bay Area have a significant positive spillover effect on Macao region's economic resilience,while capital flows do not significantly contribute to enhancing its resilience.From the perspective of the spatial correlation network in the Greater Bay Area,Macao region urgently needs to leverage the unique institutional advantages of the“One Country,Two Systems”policy to grasp the initiative in the development of a new quality productivity characterized by cooperative innovation.This would promote moderate economic diversification,mitigate and prevent external risks during growth,and consolidate the recovery to enhance urban economic resilience.In doing so,Macao region may to better integrate into China's broader development agenda and contribute to high-quality modernization efforts with its distinct strengths.