房价预期冲击、内生不确定性与总需求不足

House Price Expectation Shocks,Endogenous Uncertainty and Aggregate Demand Shortage

经济下行预期是中国总需求不足的重要原因。基于2009-2022年中国宏观经济季度数据,通过构建一个包含房价非理性预期冲击和内生不确定性的动态随机一般均衡模型,研究分析房价预期冲击对总需求的影响及其传播机制。结果表明,第一,房价下跌预期冲击会引起总需求下降,传导机制包括房屋财富幻觉、金融加速器和不确定性;第二,不确定性机制放大了房价下跌冲击的总需求抑制效应,造成了更大程度的总需求下降;第三,房价下跌预期冲击与房价上涨预期冲击的总需求效应存在非对称效应,其中房价下跌预期冲击对总需求的影响更大;第四,面对下跌预期冲击,盯住观测房价预期值的宏观审慎政策工具更能有效地熨平总需求波动。因此,政府部门应该加强预期管理,因城施策,采取更多政策工具包提振房地产需求,降低不确定性。

The downward trend of economic expectations is an important reason for the lack of aggregate demand in China.Based on China's macroeconomic quarterly data from the year 2009 to 2022,this paper analyzes the impact of the expectations of housing price shocks on the aggregate demand and its transmission mechanism by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes the irrational expectations shocks of housing prices and the endogenous uncertainty.The results indicate that:firstly,a downward expectation shock of housing prices will lead to a decline in aggregate demand,the transmission mechanism including the illusion of housing wealth,the financial accelerator,and uncertainty.Secondly,the uncertainty mechanism amplifies the suppressive effect of the negative housing price shock on the aggregate demand,resulting in a more significant decline in total demand.Thirdly,there is an asymmetric effect between the negative and positive expectation shocks of housing prices on aggregate demand,with the impact of price decline expectations being more substantial.Fourthly,in the face of a negative expectation shock,the macroprudential policy tools that focus on the observed housing price expectations are more effective in smoothing aggregate demand fluctuations.Therefore,government departments should strengthen the expectation management,implement policies tailored to individual cities,and adopt more policy tools to boost the real estate demand and reduce uncertainty.