中国能源转型的空间分异与内生驱动因素

Spatial differentiation and endogenous driving mechanisms of China's energy transition

【目的】为确保双碳目标的顺利推进,因地制宜地推动能源转型,明确中国省级层次的能源转型空间分异格局,识别影响其转型的内生驱动因素与作用差异至关重要。【方法】本文以中国30个省份为研究对象,以清洁能源占地区能源消费的比重作为衡量指标,采用社会-技术系统多层次视角构建分析框架,运用重心模型、最小二乘法和地理时空加权回归的方法分析2000—2020年中国能源转型的格局及驱动因素。【结果】(1)尽管中国各省份在能源转型方面呈现出差异化推进态势,但随时间推移地域间差异正在逐步缩小。(2)在驱动因素方面,资源禀赋是驱动地区能源转型的核心主导因素,尤其是水能资源禀赋的托底和化石能源禀赋的锁定与保障作用。但区域碳减排压力与创新投入已成为新时期地区能源转型的重要驱动力量。(3)中国各省份能源转型的驱动因素及作用效果具有显著的时空异质性。2012年之前清洁能源生产力和区外电力调入量几乎是所有省份的主导因素。2012年后,区外电力调入的影响相对减弱,技术水平的影响加大。在空间分布上,资源禀赋对华北地区影响更为显著,经济发展水平对西北地区的转型影响更大。【结论】随着中国能源转型的进程不断加快,地域差异逐步缩小,本文建议构建以煤电为支撑的风光水核储输一体化清洁能源供应体系,加大技术投入促进清洁能源高效利用,完善跨区域能源配置,以推动能源结构转型与可持续发展。

[Objective] To facilitate the achievement of China's dual carbon goals and advance energy transitions tailored to local conditions across provinces,it is crucial to clarify the spatial differentiation patterns of energy transitions at the provincial level in China and identify the endogenous driving factors and their varying effects.[Methods] This study investigated 30Chinese provinces,employing the proportion of clean energy in regional energy consumption as a metric.A multi-level analytical framework rooted in the sociotechnical systems perspective was constructed.The centroid model,ordinary least squares(OLS) method,and geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR) method were used to analyze the status and driving factors of China's energy transition from 2000 to 2020.[Results](1) Although the provinces exhibited differentiated progress in energy transitions,the regional disparities were gradually narrowing over time.(2) In terms of driving factors of regional energy transition,s resource endowments have been the core and dominant factor,particularly the underpinning role of hydropower resources and the locking-in and assurance role of fossil fuel endowments.However,regional carbon emission reduction pressures and innovation investments have become important driving forces for regional energy transition in the new period.(3) The driving factors and their effects on energy transitions in these provinces were characterized by significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity.Prior to 2012,clean energy production capacity and electricity imports from outside the region dominated almost all provinces.Post-2012,the influence of electricity imports weakened,while technological advancements gained greater influence.Spatially,resource endowments had a more significant impact on northern China,while economic development levels exerted a stronger influence on energy transitions in northwestern China.[Conclusion] As China's energy transition accelerates,regional disparities are diminishing.This study recommends the construction of an integrated clean energy supply system of wind,light,water,and nuclear energy storage and transmission,supported by coal power;increasing technological investments to promote the efficient use of clean energy;and improving cross-regional energy allocation,thereby driving the transformation of energy structures and sustainable development.