能源结构转型背景下地区能源投入策略的博弈分析

Game analysis of regional energy utilization strategies under the background of energy structure transition

【目的】在推进能源结构转型、加快新型能源体系建设的背景下,厘清不同地区的能源投入策略及其影响因素,对于因地制宜制定能源政策、有序推进区域可再生能源一体化具有重要意义。【方法】本文基于博弈论框架,从理论上推演能源结构转型背景下不同地区的能源投入策略及其影响因素,并基于2004—2019年中国不同地区风电补贴政策的实施效果以及欧洲的可再生能源一体化进程,对应展开实证检验。【结果】(1)在化石燃料能源情景下,各地区的能源投入策略表现为非合作博弈,存在路径依赖特征,并受地区的资本和劳动要素规模影响。(2)在可再生能源情景下,地区的能源投入策略表现为合作博弈,受到可再生能源单位成本、资本与劳动要素规模,以及地区间资本和劳动要素规模差异的影响。(3)当区域内各地区的资本和劳动要素规模差异更大、可再生能源成本更低、整体资本与劳动要素规模更高时,该区域适合优先推行可再生能源一体化,利于有序实现能源效率提升与能源结构转型。【结论】动态调整能源投入策略、注重可再生能源布局与地区要素禀赋匹配、针对性发挥中心城市带动作用是推动中国能源结构转型的重要策略,本文的研究发现可为有序推进可再生能源一体化与新型能源体系建设提供政策性启示。

[Objective] In the context of promoting energy structure transformation and accelerating the construction of a new energy system,clarifying the energy input strategies and their influencing factors across different regions is of great significance for formulating region-specific energy policies and orderly advancing regional renewable energy integration.[Methods] Based on a game theory framework,this study theoretically deduced the energy input strategies and influencing factors of different regions in the context of energy structure transformation.It also conducted empirical tests corresponding to the implementation effects of wind power subsidy policies in different regions of China and the progress of renewable energy integration in Europe.[Results](1) Under the fossil fuel energy scenario,regions exhibited non-cooperative game behavior,where regional energy input strategies were characterized by non-cooperative games,displaying path dependency and influenced by the scale of capital and labor factors in the region.(2) Under the renewable energy scenario,regions engaged in cooperative games,with energy input strategies reflecting cooperative games,influenced by the unit cost of renewable energy,the scale of capital and labor factors,and the differences in the scale of capital and labor factors within the region.(3)When there are larger disparities in the scale of capital and labor factors among different regions within an area,lower costs of renewable energy,and a higher overall scale of capital and labor factors,the area is suitable for prioritizing the renewable energy integration,which is more conducive to the orderly achievement of energy efficiency improvement and energy structure transformation.[Conclusion] Dynamically adjusting energy input strategies,emphasizing the alignment of renewable energy deployment with regional factor endowments,and leveraging the leading role of central cities are crucial strategies for promoting China's energy structure transformation.The findings of this study provide policy insights for the orderly advancement of renewable energy integration and the construction of a new energy system.