国际石油贸易网络动态演化及其驱动因素

Dynamics and driving factors of the international oil trade network

【目的】为推进中国式现代化提供重要的能源资源支撑,研究国际石油贸易网络动态演化及其驱动因素,对提升石油供应链韧性和安全水平具有重要战略意义。【方法】本文基于1992—2023年全球石油贸易数据,利用复杂网络分析技术和QAP分析方法,探讨全球石油贸易网络的拓扑结构、连通性、中心性及贸易集团的地理分布特征的动态演化,并从经济、人口、技术、地缘政治风险、地理距离等角度分析国际石油贸易的驱动因素。【结果】(1)国际石油市场经历了快速增长、波动调整和稳定在较高水平的演变过程。(2)石油贸易网络的网络密度相对稳定,线点率呈逐渐增长趋势,全球石油市场的连通性增强。同时,国际石油贸易呈现多极化趋势。(3)石油贸易集团从最初的三集团结构演化为四集团结构,其中新兴经济体在全球石油贸易中的地位变得更加重要,俄乌冲突对石油贸易集团演化的影响显著。(4)经济规模、人口规模、贸易协定正向推动石油贸易网络演化,技术进步和地理距离则负向影响石油贸易网络,地缘政治风险因石油囤积、价格上升等正向影响石油贸易网络。【结论】面对全球石油市场的快速演化,为应对未来可能的风险和挑战,各国应加强石油储备应对市场不确定性和“黑天鹅”事件;推进多元化贸易合作,减少对单一供应源依赖;推动技术创新,发展清洁能源,优化能源结构;加强国际合作,缓解地缘政治风险,确保石油供应稳定。

[Objective]Oil is the most critical energy resource,providing essential support for advancing Chinese-style modernization.Research on the dynamic change of the international oil trade network and its driving factors is of significant strategic importance for enhancing the resilience and security of the oil supply chain.[Methods]Based on the global oil trade data from 1992 to 2023,this study employed complex network analysis techniques and the quadratic assignment procedure(QAP)analysis method to explore the dynamic change of the topological structure,connectivity,centrality,and geographical distribution characteristics of trade groups in the global oil trade network.The driving factors of international oil trade were analyzed from economic,demographic,technological,geopolitical risk,and geographical distance perspectives.[Results]The international oil market has undergone rapid growth,volatile adjustments,and stabilization at a relatively high level.The network density of the oil trade network remained relatively stable,while the edge-node ratio showed a gradual increasing trend,indicating enhanced connectivity in the global oil market.Simultaneously,the international oil trade exhibited a trend of multipolarization.The oil trade groups have evolved from an initial three-group structure to a fourgroup structure,with emerging economies playing a more critical role in global oil trade.The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted the change of oil trade groups.Economic scale,population size,and trade agreements positively drove the change of the oil trade network,while technological advancements and geographical distance had a negative impact.Geopolitical risks,due to oil stockpiling and rising prices,positively influenced the oil trade network.[Conclusion]In response to the rapid change of the global oil market and potential future risks and challenges,countries should enhance their oil reserves to mitigate market uncertainties and“black swan”events;promote diversified trade cooperation to reduce reliance on single supply sources;advance technological innovation,develop clean energy,and optimize energy structures;and strengthen international cooperation to alleviate geopolitical risks and ensure the stability of oil supplies.