美国能源独立对全球能源贸易网络的影响——基于贸易流的视角

The impact of U.S.energy independence on global energy trade networks:A trade flow-based perspective

【目的】国际能源贸易深刻影响各国(地区)能源安全与社会生产发展,为认识资源供给冲击如何影响区域能源贸易,亟需对美国能源独立事件深入分析。【方法】本文基于能源贸易流视角,使用复杂网络方法探究2000—2020年美国能源独立进程对全球能源贸易网络的动态影响。【结果】(1)美国自21世纪以来逐渐摆脱对石油进口的高度依赖,成为石油进出口并重的能源贸易国。天然气方面,美国大幅加强了天然气出口,成为天然气贸易的主要出口国。(2)美国主要的能源来源国(地区)向美出口的能源量及比重明显下降,寻求其他国家(地区)作为新的能源出口对象;美国多数能源出口对象国(地区)与美国的能源贸易量及比重上升,增加了对美国能源的进口依赖。(3)能源贸易竞争方面,在能源进口中,美国与其他能源需求国家(地区)的竞争关系减弱,在能源出口中,美国与其他能源供给国家(地区)的竞争关系增强。【结论】美国能源供应的增长将促进能源出口国(地区)之间的竞争,包括中国在内的能源需求国家(地区)可以通过拓展进口渠道,增加能源进口量等方式降低能源安全风险。

[Objective]International energy trade plays a crucial role in influencing national energy security and socio-economic development across regions.In order to understand how resource supply shocks affect regional trade,it is urgent to analyze U.S.energy independence.[Methods]This study aims to analyze U.S.energy independence from the perspective of energy trade flows and its effect on the global energy trade network over the period from 2000 to 2020.A comprehensive analysis is provided using complex network analysis methods to track and explore the dynamic effects that the U.S.energy independence process has exerted on the global energy trade network during this time frame.[Results](1)The research revealed that the United States has reduced its high dependence on petroleum imports and emerged as a significant energy trading nation,balancing both petroleum imports and exports.At the same time,the United States has greatly strengthened its export of natural gas,becoming a major exporter in the natural gas trade networks.(2)For trading partners of the United States,most energy-exporting countries(regions)have decreased the volume and proportion of energy trade with the United States and expanded their energy export targets.Energy-importing countries(regions)have increased their energy trade volume and proportion with the United States,thus increasing their dependence on American energy imports.(3)With regard to energy trade competition,the U.S.has experienced reduced competition with other energy-demanding countries or regions concerning energy imports.However,when it comes to energy exports,the U.S.faces intensified competition with other energy-supplying nations or regions as it continues to expand its role in the global energy export market.[Conclusion]The expansion of U.S.energy supplies has introduced new dynamics into the global energy trade landscape,particularly by intensifying competition among energy-exporting countries.For energy-importing countries and regions,the rise of the U.S.as a key energy supplier presents opportunities to diversify energy sources,potentially reducing energy security risks related to supply disruptions.For instance,countries like China can mitigate energy security risks by diversifying their import channels,increasing energy trade volumes,and strengthening partnerships with a broader array of energy suppliers,including the U.S.,in order to safeguard their energy supply in an increasingly competitive environment.