权力转移背景下拜登政府的战略布局与困局

Power Shift and Biden Administration's Strategic Adjustments and Quandary

美国奥巴马、特朗普和拜登三届政府都面临一个战略难题:即在权力转移背景下,如何同时保持在多个区域(亦即欧亚大陆上的欧洲、中东和印太)的主导地位和影响力?三届政府应对方式的共同点是在战略布局方面减少海外武力干预,更加注重亚太/印太地区。拜登政府的战略布局体现在三个方面,即坚决从阿富汗撤军的同时希望保持美国的承诺可信度,在欧洲和中东的冲突中维护美国利益的同时试图管控冲突,以及推动欧洲和印太盟友之间的协同。拜登政府的上述举措取得了一定成效,但是各有其局限性,未能从根本上解决权力转移背景下的战略难题,即资源和目标之间的错配问题。

The Obama,Trump and Biden administrations all face a similar strategic challenge,i.e.,in the midst of power transition,how to sustain U.S.dominant influence in multiple regions(Europe,the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific)?The Biden administration has made efforts along three lines:completing the total withdrawal from Afghanistan while trying to maintain the U.S.credibility;safeguarding the U.S.interests in the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East while trying to avoid escalation;pushing for collaboration between U.S.allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.These efforts have paid off to a limited certain extent,but they have not solved the more fundamental problem of the mismatch between resources and objectives.